ICON sticking to its Gatling Guns. Almost all of this has occurred in sub-freezing air in the Ga. CAD region with much of it occurring with temps in the mid to upper twenties north and east of Atlanta, with 32 or below back into Atlanta.
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Between this and the FV3 I have a bit more confidence that if colder verifies we will get a raging sleetstorm the first half. That should save a ton of power problems at least
Probably a dumb question...you think the mesos/euro are limiting precip to the carolinas due to gulf convection? I have heard that before just didn't know how prevalent it was in events.
RTRwx
Member
Man, I have no idea what to expect in southeast TN, Northeast AL and North GA. Modeled dew points in the single digits tomorrow morning make me question the models that take the region above freezing Sunday morning. Now the ICON and a few Meso models are trending colder each run.. A couple of degrees can be difference in a quarter inch of ice and a catastrophe.
Any opinions for this region?
Any opinions for this region?
Brent
Member
No precip here yet... Closer to sunset
I think that front thump of the storm will bring us more snow than forecasted in Raleigh right now. Maybe 1-3” and then sleet. Ice will still be just as concerning
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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NAM 12km always pushes bands of precipitation further north than modeled. Several instances of this before. Here is an example from last winter where I talked about this.
NAM vs what actually happened for 1/5/2025
That's almost a night and day difference between the ICON and the Euro/NAM with QPF totals. That tells me that the models still haven't honed in on a solution with this storm and almost anything is still on the table except for snow for most of us.
rburrel2
Member
No I think that gulf convection is helping to boost our qpf in this case. Because it's limiting moisture transport to the north across the midwest, and serving as a focal point for precip racing out ahead farther south and east. Just go look at the drier models radar loops and compare to the "wetter" model radar loops and you'll see what I mean.
I don't have access to ice accumulations. (too cheap) but this tells the tale well. The Icon keeps the Atlanta NE burbs subfreezing into the 'squall' line.
LovingGulfLows
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Really Really hope the Icon is wrong here.
Me too
rburrel2
Member
Nam 3km... 0 gulf convection. Euro.... copious gulf convection.
The convection the NAM has over central MS/Arkansas is too far north to get us.... that's the problem with it.
The Euro convection does get us in on precip though.
The convection the NAM has over central MS/Arkansas is too far north to get us.... that's the problem with it.
The Euro convection does get us in on precip though.
Helpful graph on ice to liquid ratios at different hourly precip rates.
Icon flips winds at the sfc to the N then NW in response to the coastal. That's interesting
I believe the ICON is to the other extreme on qpf. Between the models, the RDU area is averaging between .75" on the low end and roughly 1.5" on the high end. I really like around 1" qpf total for this area. Again, this is my opinion.
This is weird because usually in the spring time, convection along the gulf robs our energy source... usually what saves ATL doing spring severe weather season. Interesting concept.
I have no idea how well it handles CAD situations, but having grown up in New Orleans and following last year's Gulf Coast blizzard closely, I do know the ICON was handled that storm nearly perfectly. It's not to be ignored.
Stormsfury
Member
WPC created these maps around 345am Friday morning. They're keeping the lows and fronts further south.
Depending on the orientation, it’s seemingly ruined or at least cut back on some of our past winter storms, too. But the convection can also enhance totals in certain situations, as we see in some of the modeling.
That's what happened in January of 2005. We expected a lot worse but the sleet saved the day early.
rainfall rates around a 1in an hour.
RTRwx
Member
Lol, well that's different. Assuming an earlier transfer to the east coast?
rburrel2
Member
Right. This system is so far North and West compared to our normal systems that gulf-robbing convection may actually "help" us in this storm.
That's my opinion anyways.
Makeitsnow
Member
And i think it will be right. I don't buy the surface warming models are showing in the core of the wedge over ne ga. A wedge of this magnitude is going to be extremely tough to scour or warm. But we will soon find out.
Those ratios vary greatly depending on temps. I wonder what surface temperature is being used?
Orientation of the Gulf Convection also matters a lot: if it is oriented SW to NE, it will enhance moisture transport inland; if it is oriented E to W, it significantly reduces transport. So, for those that want more precip you want convection in the gulf BUT you do not want it to orient E to W
BHS1975
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Psalm 148:8
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Ok.. totally lost here.. west central Ga near LaGrange/east Alabama.. no watches,,advisories.. this map clearly has us in frozen precip as well as the HRRR with the stout climatologically based wedge around 28 degrees.. what am I to think?? Thunderstorm line? Frozen precip from wedge.. m at a loss!! Help please..
Which makes the icon being the coldest curious. It might be right but it just seems odd as a whole
Believe they took it for a variety of sfc Ts but here is one dependent on Tw
Wonder if FFC will maybe go Ice Storm Warning for Fulton County (Atlanta). Think it’s issued when there’s a greater than 80% chance .25” or more. Most recent graphic I saw had Atlanta at 73%.
North Fulton likely has higher odds. Anyone know when the last ice storm warning was for Atlanta?
North Fulton likely has higher odds. Anyone know when the last ice storm warning was for Atlanta?
Maybe Feb 2014.
That HP is just little too far north. If it were in upstate NY then NC/SC/NGa might be in different place with this storm
Yes. But, with the steering flow SW to NE, I'm certain it won't be situated E-W in this instance.
rburrel2
Member
Amazing 36hr model battle here over Louisiana. And has huge implications for our total qpf.
At this point the storm should start by February 5th