Cad Wedge NC
Member
But that door looks to be closing. At least that's the trend I see.
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
blueheronNC
Member
Montana energy keeps digging too however
shelby sounding btw if yall were wondering
Packsox03
Member
Okay id assume power outage risk is much, much lower there as well. Having a warm place to sleep and access to hot food seems pretty damn good
WxBlue
Meteorologist
Caught a conversation on X and that February 1994 freezing rain might be a good analog for this weekend?
JP152
Member
No freezing rain at all mentioned. Just snow and sleet and a couple nights below zero afterward.
yeah there's literally nothing i like about this gfs run lol. might be ball game
Cad Wedge NC
Member
I got to agree, .... that does look way south.
It’s still gonna try to start NC as snow Saturday afternoon lol
That damn N stream energy is almost in Washington state, as depicted
VegasEagle
Member
I'm thinking about doing the same thing. Is there any cool places to stop and vacate and Georgia or Northern Florida?
ICON is warm biased. Someone asked earlier in the thread. But lost it from all you getty ICE lovers.
This is the question for NC Piedmont at this stage. Can it sleet enough to avoid disaster? Been thinking ZR ends up a bit south of consensus
Drier for GA/SC
GFS letting us down easy..and I respect that 
The fly in the ointment is all about what ultimately N stream ultimately does if that Baja is that low south and the N.Stream verifies further East (Not trending) but still that man it will be a whole other convo
rburrel2
Member
A balmy 19 at gsp at the end of the rgem run, after 1.25 inches of liquid has already fallen. Insane. Some of it is sleet though for sure with the -9/-10 925s
Also, fyi, I’ve tracked model performances for cad events several times and the rgem easily has the best performance.
Caveat that this the very end of the run so not locked in stone yet.
Also, fyi, I’ve tracked model performances for cad events several times and the rgem easily has the best performance.
Caveat that this the very end of the run so not locked in stone yet.
And yet it somehow still starts out as snow even here
GFS ticked north slightly. Dropsonde ingest made no difference, as expected. Same trend remains in place.
i think i'm throwing in the towel trying to extrapolate whats going to happen early in runs at this pointAnd yet it somehow still starts out as snow even here
The higher mountain peaks are starting to appear as rain in SWNC once the H8 warm nose works in, while the valleys remain sleet/ZR
NAM, RGEM, Icon, and GFS temps all look about the same at hour 84.
Ice accumulations from the GFS. 
GFS continues a very long duration event for the Carolinas with some places receiving wintry precip for 36 or so hours
buckinbronco
Member
Wedge is holding on for dear life in GA on the GFS
Forevertothee
Member
That would sick for ATL and extreme Western Upstate.
I think sleet can salvage upstate,till you get back to clemson on 85, back across ga, sc state line toward Gainsville Thats ground zero for frzng rain. I think triad is 3-6 sleet accum. Still think BF can net a inch, maybe 2 of snow before he joins the sleet party. Blend of gfs, icon looks good to me right now. Icon is highest resolution model ran.
Snowflowxxl
Member
rburrel2
Member
3.3 inches of freezing rain jackpot for me with temps in the low to mid 20s. yay?
Looking at p10-p90 from the ICON ensemble, ILM is 24/62, whereas CLT is 22/29. Would appear the thermal window is narrowing for central NC at-least, tough to see CLT/GSO/RDU even RWI getting out of the 20s on Sunday. One heck of a gradient should setup, could be 70 on HAT while RDU is in the low 20s. I'd put that battle ground somewhere between Hwy 17 and I-95, right through the Coastal Plain, and unfortunately somewhere in there is where the ZR hit will occur.
Huh, it is dropping 1.82 inches of ice in ATL. even if you cut it in half that leaves .91 and cut by 75% that leaves .60...scary man!
Btownheel
Member
Yeh we’re gonna get a concrete job. Question is if we can sneak a 3-5 front end thump of snow first before the pour starts. Honestly that will be tons of fun.
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buckinbronco
Member
Final freezing rain total…just a casual almost 3 inches for ATL lol
jmills152077
Member
Meanwhile down in SE Alabama, we’ve gone from close to freezing to 70s. Lovely
HailCore
Member
Welp, there goes Atlanta right off the map...