Do you believe the giant precip hole shown on nam for upstate?
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
The changes with the Baja on the NAM and RRFS would be something I’d expect after some data ingestion. To know that it wasn’t ingested for those two models makes that swing even more surprising.
The HI Res HRW-FV3 is a good example of what sorta is a good transition for that Baja Low and the North trough progression.... Baja and through pretty much stay apart out west and trough moves ahead of baja and you a reduction in overall warm nose SE out to 60 hours. The Orientation and push on HRW looks more downslopeand eastward and not grabbing really like Euro is
HRW
Euro
HRW
Euro
There is a good chance this thing dries out significantly with that kind of ridge over the SE
Not sure what you’re referencing , looks fairly even to me. NAM can have strange precip artifacts at times. If the CAD dome is this strong and the southerly flow @ 850 is as impressive as models have ATM I would be very surprised if there were notable gaps in the precip in the Upstate
Flo
Member
Anyone doing PBP for euro? Surely someone wants to take one for the team?
weatherguy
Member
Even though it has trended north, it seems to be plateauing.
0 is at Nashville, and these numbers are center of heaviest snow axis in miles north or south of Nashville for each run:
0 is at Nashville, and these numbers are center of heaviest snow axis in miles north or south of Nashville for each run:
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I know I’ve said I don’t buy the big QPF and still don’t buy 1.5”+ but you could potentially overperform wherever guidance ends up right before the system given this:
I mean dang. That is howling SSE at 850
I mean dang. That is howling SSE at 850
weather balloons
It’s not that farfetched to see how this thing could turn into a line of tstorms tbh
iGRXY
Member
Don’t use the long range Nam precip. It’s notoriously dry
In fact the more I look at this the more it scares me for deep CAD zones. This is not going to be pouring runoff ZR that would be steady and get things iced quickly
Yeah prolonged freezing drizzle is arguable worse than heavy ZR
Just using mby as a reference point it doesn't really seem that much different for NC, the 800-850 layer never gets significantly cool or dry. As soon as the SE flow kicks in many of us have lost that layer above freezing so at best its a short period of snow before right to sleet. On the bright side the cold layer sub 850 on the nam is a monster, probably leads to a significant sleet event unless we see the nam go more towards euro thermals
iGRXY
Member
1.5” of QPF looks likely imo. This is a 36 hour event. QPF really isn’t the concern imo. Now the 3” totals the icon has is overdone. But 1.5-2” seems plausible especially with as much WAA that will be coming from the southwesterly flow.
The Iceman cometh. ICON
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Just a casual foot of sleet in Texarkana
NCSNOW
Member
Look how much colder TN and Northern AL.
Makeitsnow
Member
That would have to be some kind of all time us record right? I've never heard of anything like that.
Icon holds...it's amazing there is this much difference at this time range
iGRXY
Member
The ICON will be more amped
NCSNOW
Member
Better confluence NE on icon verse Nam
This looks reasonable to me. I just can't believe there is so much disagreement with some of the other models being so amped still. I have to think that will settle down tonight.
Nice Andew Dice Clay reference, btw!
Solid run if you're a wild man like me who loves ice.
JP152
Member
It's actually a better run for the MA. Northern Virginia switches to sleet after about 10 inches have fallen. Slightly colder than 18Z.
beanskip
Member
0z ICON having nothing to do with scouring out the wedge.
CLT doesn't get below 22F for all 2 inches of its QPF.
It better be sleet .....
CLT doesn't get below 22F for all 2 inches of its QPF.
It better be sleet .....
SnowmasterATL
Member
It looks like the NS moves back towards MT and the BAJA is about to get touched...another amped run! this is wild indeed. NAM flat and the ICON amped.
DylanWx
Member
WPC upping chances for major-extreme ice event
THEN FOR US BIRMINGHAM FOLK WE GOT TO DEAL WITH THE BLACK ICE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND POSS TUESDAY AFTER THAT 4 INCHES OF RAIN
Surface temps on the ICON during the event is still just bonkers to me. It is always the "warmer" model. I'll believe temps in teens with ip/zr when I see it
Mpirone12
Member
Couldn’t ICON possibly have been first to get sampled now? I know it was mentioned GFS and EURO but post above mentions could also be ICON.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
You could cook eggs over that warm nose. Dear gracious
NCSNOW
Member
Be nice if it would transfer to sc coast, instead of delmarva. Help catch some backside. Heavy dbz's runing into north GA pink area from AL
Forevertothee
Member
Can someone be helpful and state the temps during the heart of storm for the Upstate on the ICON run?
No sign of significant changes on the ICON for ATL. It’s been rock steady with ZR in the 20’s. This run is a tiny smidge warmer
rburrel2
Member
If the icon is right fema will be called in to the upstate.
It is possible but unconfirmed. Comes down to 1) if the data was available in the icon assimilation window and 2) if they chose to use it
Makeitsnow
Member
+10c EWL and a -10c minimum boundary layer temp. Only a 36F difference over a few thousand feet. Wild
It’s wild that we’re 72 hours out and “absolute-apocalyptic-disaster” is still a viable possibility and on multiple models.