Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

[malak05]

wondering if that backside can deepen more and create a gulf low?

Ummm...if that verified I'm good I don't need 2-3 inches of snow on top of 2 inches of frz rain

 

[NCwx1992]

This is with still a solid 12-18 hrs to go in the Carolinas.....

View attachment 187127

Half a foot+ of sleet would be a positively absurd thing to see manifest

 

[Packsox03]

That it is, but it’s several inches of it. We could be talking 3-6” of sleet alone which would be insane and shut things down for a long time. Topped with ice. Preceded by a little snow, perhaps? That’s a hell of a storm.

Oh yeah for sure. Less than .1” ZR in Raleigh I’d sign up for that. Get to keep my power and sled around campus all day and have some cold beers

 

[Stormdoc]

Looks better on the back side

This would be a nice finish on top of all the concrete

 

[iGRXY]

trend is pretty clear in the upstate. Potential front end snow thump is there, but heavy sleet and then as the 2nd wave gets going we switch to ZR. 3-5” of sleet and 0.5-0.75” of ZR. Maybe 1-2” of backside snow on top.

 

[Btownheel]

I think some of you all have unrealistic expectations with this which is leading to some of the meltdowns and bittercasting. Yes, it’s true that it’s nigh impossible for this to become a 12-18” snowstorm for those of us in NC/SC/GA but the table is still set for a sizable front end thump if the cards are aligned right and then a transition to tons of ice pellets and freezing rain (I understand feelings are mixed on this P-type, and for good reason). The GFS is still showing this for some. A lot of major winter storms are like this in our area - snow to ice pellets to freezing rain.

Honestly, a front thump of 4-6 followed by a raging 3 inches of pingers with a .15 zr glaze to turbocharge sledding, make it pretty but leave power and trees alone sounds awesome. Better than anything we’ve seen in years and my daughter would have a ball.


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[KyloG]

Kind of a big change on GFS day 3. This either going to score a major win or….

 

[Packsox03]

Honestly, a front thump of 4-6 followed by a raging 3 inches of pingers with a .15 zr glaze to turbocharge sledding, make it pretty but leave power and trees alone sounds awesome. Better than anything we’ve seen in years and my daughter would have a ball.


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sledding down the court of carolina would be pretty freaking cool. Sleet bombs can be dope

 

[TigerSnow]

When is all of this going to be fully sampled. With a system this complex I’m curious when all the energy will be on the models and sampled. I’m not saying it will change anything but maybe we get more clarity.

 

[KyloG]

GFS is trending weaker and retreating with the high like the Euro…so they have that in common. But I guess we shouldn’t discuss that….only positive vibes

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[strongwxnc]

Man that would be an epic time of sledding if played out like the 18Z GFS just showed. 3 inches of snow, then 2 inches of sleet, then 4 more inches of snow.

Plus the backside now would be great. I see lower QPF in the lee side so you know its right. LOL

 

[WxDawgWx]

For those who have been doing this for a while, how rare is this entire scenario, with how powerful the storm is and seemingly confused the models are.

 

[CraggyRider]

I was at NCSU for this one:

 

[malak05]

UKMET continues with 12z element of Northern Energy and Baja low separating a decent amount you can see the nose retrograde here some that will continue to help flatten the initially elements.... now if the Energy would then just slide east a little sooner you would have a better SE overrunning window for deep south

12Z


18Z

 

[Packsox03]

Just a word of caution about backside snow…it often doesn’t pan out since extremely dry air is advected in and CAA is highly favorable for subsidence

 

[egg]

UKMET continues with 12z element of Northern Energy and Baja low separating a decent amount you can see the nose retrograde here some that will continue to help flatten the initially elements.... now if the Energy would then just slide east a little sooner you would have a better SE overrunning window for deep south

12Z
View attachment 187139

18Z
View attachment 187140

ridge also slightly weaker

 

[KyloG]

I don't know what to think...GEFS is trending away from bringing that baja low out quick...keeping those 3 pieces of energy apart longer.

 

[jackendrickwx]

“The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute” is maybe the biggest understatement ever by GSP

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

GFS lets me on the backend. What does an inch of snow on top of an inch of ice look like?

 

[Makeitsnow]

UKMET continues with 12z element of Northern Energy and Baja low separating a decent amount you can see the nose retrograde here some that will continue to help flatten the initially elements.... now if the Energy would then just slide east a little sooner you would have a better SE overrunning window for deep south

12Z
View attachment 187139

18Z
View attachment 187140

uk also has a faster cold press across the east at 66 hours vs prior runs. In general this has been the theme today....as part of this is the models are "seeing" the wedging more as we get closer.

 

[SnowQueen]

Just a word of caution about backside snow…it often doesn’t pan out since extremely dry air is advected in and CAA is highly favorable for subsidence

It does pan out. I’ve seen it many times over the 5 decades I’ve lived IN NC. Storms this big, complex and with such a long duration always flip flop back and forth and very often there is snow on back end. Screw the models.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

A summary of how these models depict the CAD down south at its deepest penetration into Georgia. height. (NAM out to 84hrs)

 

[Storm5]

Interested in what the gefs shows Saturday into su day for western areas

 

[MichaelJ]

Biggest question for me is, when does the GFS fold now or tomorrow?

 

[superjames1992]

It does pan out. I’ve seen it many times over the 5 decades I’ve lived IN NC. Storms this big, complex and with such a long duration always flip flop back and forth and very often there is snow on back end. Screw the models.

The February 2014 backside snow comes to mind. The ULL gave areas of the foothills 6-12” on the backside of the snow to ice storm,

 

[Mahomeless]

Great backside change by the GFS!! Let’s see if it holds on other globals.

CONGRATS NC!!!

 

[Rain Cold]

Maybe we can keep the next one south.

 

[WeatherNC]

National map really starting to light up with watches and warnings. Continue to believe we have not seen the last of model swings, and often times at this range corrections can be overdone, to dial back some inside 48hrs. Small changes N/S interaction with the Baja wave, orientation of the PV lobe, just a lot of small details to work out still. I'd certainly be preparing for a ZR storm if I was south of the VA boarder, hoping that a good portion of QPF verifies as IP. Normally the core ZR zone is narrow as others have stated, the NAM usually handles it well inside 48hrs, it's highly uncommon to see a region wide ZR event so right now I'm inclined to think the freezing rain zone tightens up, and many will end up with a raging sleet storm.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Chris Justus said south shift is more than possible. NW trend is over

 

[SnowQueen]

The February 2014 backside snow comes to mind. The ULL gave areas of the foothills 6-12” on the backside of the snow to ice storm,

ULLs are a beautiful thing and over perform in most cases. Speaking from pure experience here.

 

[rburrel2]

This is the model to follow for surface temps. Good news for Atlanta, the rgem is pretty warm there. Bad news for NC/SC, it’s super cold there.
Temps are still dropping across the region on this last panel. She was going at least a few degrees lower than this.
Already damaging ice developing in places.

 

[WSNC]

 

[EmersonGA]

I don't think I've ever seen a model output where Statesboro is at 27 and Hiawassee is 34 and raining lol

Elevation hurts in this setup. WB sent a reporter to Sky Valley back in the 2000 ice storm and it was raining while it was icing all over Atlanta.

 

[Chattownsnow]

GFS is trending weaker and retreating with the high like the Euro…so they have that in common. But I guess we shouldn’t discuss that….only positive vibes

View attachment 187136

Both are trending much weaker. If I were that model I would be embarrassed

 

[griteater]

It does pan out. I’ve seen it many times over the 5 decades I’ve lived IN NC. Storms this big, complex and with such a long duration always flip flop back and forth and very often there is snow on back end. Screw the models.

It depends on the setup. You need a trailing wave / vort max dropping in on the backside of the storm (Dec 2010, Feb 2014). GFS has a small one, but it's on an island with that (well, with a lot of things)

 

[Tarheel1]

Y'all didn't think we'd all not get NAMd at some point? Potent wedge deep into the Ga. CAD region, precip looks like it would be much lighter than say the ICON that goes nuclear with 3+ inches.
View attachment 187085View attachment 187086

That’s a jump N on NAM, correct???
It has me snowing! The first model to show the precip shield that far N!!

 

[SnowmasterATL]

Both are trending much weaker. If I were that model I would be embarrassed

Might be banter and sorry if it is, I in some recent discussion from some people here, they stated that the HP could weaken as we get closer. Not has strong as modeled. I am not shocked by this at all.

 

[Snowacane]

Biggest question for me is, when does the GFS fold now or tomorrow?

Not going too, the euro has been off due to the triple phasing and will correct S

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

For those who have been doing this for a while, how rare is this entire scenario, with how powerful the storm is and seemingly confused the models are.

I’ve never seen anything like this. Nothing close. I’ve seen it on 300hr maps. But that’s it. It’s not snow but if this happens the way they say it’s going to happen, it’s a storm you will never forget. The landscape once this is over with won’t let you.