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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

Stormsfury said:
This is coming back to the point Webberweather made before. Baja lows are generally stubborn on wanting to get ejected out once they establish. IF we continue to see these even small slower, SW or W ticks, this flattens the flow downstream (US) and negates some of the ridge pumping
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So much so that it feels like climatology. It makes so much more sense that it doesn't come out, and things end up more progressive like they have SO many times in the past. So there's that. The trends this morning keep my glimmer of sleet hope alive. Euro run will crush them, or keep them alive.

Rain Cold said:
This makes so much more sense synoptically than the Canadian. But as we know, the Canadian doesn't care about meteorology.

It would also favor more sleet than freezing rain for many.
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Perhaps that's another thing to look out for, an earlier transfer Miller A/B hybrid rather than the straight Miller B.
 
North Georgia Winter Storm Watch:

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to 4 inches and ice accumulations greater than one quarter inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast, and northwest Georgia.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Expect power outages and tree damage due to the ice. Travel could be impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Persons should consider delaying all travelSaturday and Sunday. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.


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SnowNiner said:
So much so that it feels like climatology. It makes so much more sense that it doesn't come out, and things end up more progressive like they have SO many times in the past. So there's that. The trends this morning keep my glimmer of sleet hope alive. Euro run will crush them, or keep them alive.



Perhaps that's another thing to look out for, an earlier transfer Miller A/B hybrid rather than the straight Miller B.
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Down here (and tbh up to DC/Balt) miller B transfers straight up blow. It brings that WAA way too far north. For miller B's you need to sometimes be north or east of New Haven, CT
 
Storm5 said:
It’s gonna be there due to the surface low track . Still have doubts it’s that strong with the massive CAD funneling down . Just have to wait and see
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I agree. Over the years, the CAD has made it here to Prattville with much weaker high pressure. We’ll have to wait and see as it’s always hard to forecast these. May not know here in Central Alabama until go time.
 
malak05 said:
Well that's a interesting post...if accurate he's basically inducing that GFS/GEM particularly have some early data ingestion that others may not have... It's interesting that RGEM/CMC both moved the Baja further SW in initial runs with new data if so move toward GFS is slightly. I do not know if there's accuracy here though because wasn't under impression yesterday run was collecting full data and more tracking
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Yes the GFS started receiving data from recon planes last night and now the Canadian. I’m interested to see when the EURO might have access to it
 
NWS GSP has issued a winter storm watch for the entire CWA

1237 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet
accumulations between 1 and 6 inches and ice accumulations between
four tenths and one inch possible.

* WHERE...Northeast Georgia, Western North Carolina, and the South
Carolina Upstate.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Significant ice accumulation on power lines and tree
limbs may cause widespread and long-lasting power outages. Ice and
snow covered roadways will become treacherous and impassable.
Widespread power outages are likely due to the weight of the ice
and snow on tree limbs and power lines. The outages could last for
days in some areas. The hazardous conditions could impact the
Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Highest snow and sleet accumulations are
possible north of I-40. Highest ice accumulations are possible
across the southern mountains of North Carolina, the mountains of
northeast Georgia, and the mountains of South Carolina.
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Definitely getting worried about the growing ice storm threat in the carolinas from this storm.

The hardest part about these sorts of events is predicting how much of our precip will be sleet or freezing rain.

I can’t say I’ve seen too many winter storms historically like this that had a +10C warm nose aloft and surface temps were in the low to mid 20s like a lot of the models are showing atm
 
Webberweather53 said:
Definitely getting worried about the growing ice storm threat in the carolinas from this storm.

The hardest part about these sorts of events is predicting how much of our precip will be sleet or freezing rain.

I can’t say I’ve seen too many winter storms historically like this that had a +10C warm nose aloft and surface temps were in the low to mid 20s like a lot of the models are showing atm
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What would it take to keep the precip as IP instead of ZR? The depth and intensity of the cold pool underneath the warm nose, the thickness of the warm nose or max temp. of it, or a combination of all those?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Definitely getting worried about the growing ice storm threat in the carolinas from this storm.

The hardest part about these sorts of events is predicting how much of our precip will be sleet or freezing rain.

I can’t say I’ve seen too many winter storms historically like this that had a +10C warm nose aloft and surface temps were in the low to mid 20s like a lot of the models are showing atm
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This is why I was asking earlier about an analog storm for this event. From what I can gather, the 2002 storm’s temperatures were in the mid-20s for the duration in the Carolinas Piedmont. The modeling is suggesting mid-TEENS for this one. Has this ever happened?
 
iGRXY said:
My guess is we trend to a bit flatter out east. That’s been the theme of our winters the last couple of years. We have had major issues with more positively tilted and flatter solutions out east. I don’t see why that would stop here honestly
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Last year's pattern was SOOOOO progressive and almost every storm trended south, going against conventional wisdom
 
blueheronNC said:
What would it take to keep the precip as IP instead of ZR? The depth and intensity of the cold pool underneath the warm nose, the thickness of the warm nose or max temp. of it, or a combination of all those?
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All of the above and then some like precipitation rates, etc. Even the most subtle things like the types of cloud condensation nuclei we have aloft can impact it because water that condenses around black carbon aerosols vs say sea salt or pollen freezes at slightly different temperatures!
 
I mean despite the changes, an inch of ice is no joke. Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t the 2002 ice storm in general .75 to 1.25 ice?

The major 2000 ice storm, was about .75.

The last ice storm I remember was in 2016, and that had about .5.

The Augusta 2014 ice storm was about an inch

And those storms were intense.

This seems worse
 
Webberweather53 said:
All of the above and then some like precipitation rates, etc. Even the most subtle things like the types of cloud condensation nuclei we have aloft can impact it because water that condenses around black carbon aerosols vs say sea salt or pollen freezes at slightly different temperatures!
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I wondered in class why we talked about cloud microphysics so much. Well, I guess I'm finding out why right now
 
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