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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Show a map showing ice accruals from the AIFS too if it has one (it might be a scary sight for RDU).
AIGFS is steady as she goes with the CAD into N. GA. N. Ga goes sub-freezing Saturday evening and remains so for the duration of the storm. It hands of the SLP to the baroclinic zone off of the Ga. Coast rather than plowing an Apps runner as one would expect in a strong CAD situation.
Forevertothee
Member
Looks to be colder in the traditional CAD areas, as well. More knowledgable posters, agree?
NBAcentel
Member
That slowing trend is actually starting to help us out by allowing the wedge to entrench more prior to onset of precipitation, regardless of how it goes after 
packfan98
Moderator
hard agree with all of this
for whatever its worth (not much in my book) the AI GFS is front end snow/sleet for 85 north:
This is a great read. I was just seeing this. It's something new we need to watch with the timing of everything cold source wise.
iGRXY
Member
My thoughts as a whole for the southeast:
Slower ULL eject means a flatter onset and everything is slower for the CAD to build in. I think we can get a front end thump of snow or it’s at least on the table east of the apps. 2-6” would be guess without pinning down exact locations. Then we eventually transition to sleet and get 2-5”. As the Baja ejects we pump the heights and we quickly transition to an ice event in the upstate and spit of I40. And it’ll be nasty accruals. 0.5-1” is what I think. That’s absolutely terrifying
Slower ULL eject means a flatter onset and everything is slower for the CAD to build in. I think we can get a front end thump of snow or it’s at least on the table east of the apps. 2-6” would be guess without pinning down exact locations. Then we eventually transition to sleet and get 2-5”. As the Baja ejects we pump the heights and we quickly transition to an ice event in the upstate and spit of I40. And it’ll be nasty accruals. 0.5-1” is what I think. That’s absolutely terrifying
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
More qpf this run than 0Z
This makes so much more sense synoptically than the Canadian. But as we know, the Canadian doesn't care about meteorology.
It would also favor more sleet than freezing rain for many.
Fair assumption, I think the 2" is most likely to happen with the thump. The ice and sleet WILL become an issue though and it's not going anywhere with this CAD in place.
ukmet looking better so far. also holding baja wave west at hour 57. montana shortwave is faster, about the same dig. frankly i don think this run is going to bring rain to kentucky this time
Here was the snow depth on December 6, 2002
That indicates the lack of frozen precipitation cover modeled there.
packfan98
Moderator
CMC looks like it shifted the heaviest precip south vs. last run
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NBAcentel
Member
Yeah we ain’t escaping this one boys. Sorry 
Stormsfury
Member
With the Slower Baja feature, I think the other most important thing is to get that northern stream energy out ahead and further east a little quicker.
I seem to recall the UKMET being pretty bad at modeling CAD situations in the past? Is that still true? I suppose even if it's bad with surface temps, the details, etc. it still may be useful in a general synoptic context, anyways.
Stormsfury
Member
Just your average 25 degree temp drop in Charleston lol. Feel the wedge! Likely will be seeing continued colder adjustments on the UKie in future runs
i know doomerism is still en vogue but outside of the gfs, which was an outlier, modeling has either held serve or ticked south this cycle. the baja low placement is trending on our side. i don't think we're going back to our glory runs but there are reasons for optimism
lexxnchloe
Member
If the EURO comes south maybe things will look better tomorrow.
Going by 850s (so this is probably overdone, but I don't have soundings), the 12z AIGFS is like 4-8" for much of the I-85 corridor in NC before the changeover to IP. About a quarter inch falls on the panel prior to this. 17 at GSO, 20 at RDU, 21 at CLT on the below panel.
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Would love to see the euro trend stop and reverse. It’s so relieving to see the models holding the Baja back icl
SimeonNC
Member
I'm still confident that a lot of NC will see more sleet than what occurred in December 2002
Depends how strong that CAD and warm nose are
SimeonNC
Member
I was half asleep when I read the update but didn't GSP mention the possibility of watches going up today for the area?
Forevertothee
Member
They did say MAY go up before the end of next cycle, yes.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Temps will be a lot colder at the surface this time than they were in that one. As much as 10 degrees in some areas.
To be serious, the western trend with the north stream in the 3-5 day range is what sucked us back in to the last threat to only yank the rug out and trend back east.
They are already out for folks to our west, so I can't imagine FFC, GSP, RAH, etc. don't throw out watches today. There's almost no way this isn't a major winter storm of some type for much of their coverage areas.
Man the UKMet is definitely a improvement and seems to be definitely something to that SW trend in the Baja Low that half of the element that helps people get a flatter snowier solution for AL/GA area it still cuts because the Northern stream still lingers and eventually absorbs it BUT you can see here if the Northern stream is 100 miles further East and a tick faster this is very GFS like perhaps even more so of a flatter look