Brandon10
Member
Def moving to the Euro....GFS just hanging on to front end snow
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
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Of course, the GFS is playing catch up to the field, so the target really is the Euro and company to see if they continue to go north or come back at all.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Carolina’s are going to be in a tough spot when it comes to messaging. There’s going to be a lot of “north” talk on the news, which will inevitably be interpreted as ah no snow storms a bust. When as far as impacts, it is trending to a much more significant impact for NC.
For Georgia CAD regions, the 12Z GFS is worse in that most of what was sleet is now mostly ZR. Most of this is ZR. Rather ICONish.
Another big problem with amping this thing is the wind increase. Power line nightmare fuel.
Stormsfury
Member
Two wave situation instead. Theoretically, could have been better for a faster ejection to get the southern stream with the arrival of the wedge instead. That northern s/w diving in at 87hr catching up to Baja just flooded the SE with SW flow aloft.
Think NWS office thoughts will start to change today
Looks like the Baja low is being held back and a bit stronger on the Canadian at 12z compared to the last run, FWIW.
Storm5
Member
Gfs is hell bent on a second wave Sunday into Monday once the baja wave kicks . Might be our best chance in central alabama
However we will have to wait and see about the wedge. In recent years we've seen them much stronger than advertised pushing the freezing temp well back towards Tuscaloosa
Long way to go
However we will have to wait and see about the wedge. In recent years we've seen them much stronger than advertised pushing the freezing temp well back towards Tuscaloosa
Long way to go
doelman
Member
what's causing that warm tongue that hangs over central Alabama for 24 hours straight? It doesn't budge at all, very strange to a layman when everything else is caught up in a westerly flow.
that's the 06z
It's a fool's errand to hypothesize whether that baja low or montana trough is more influential in what happens to us. but to me the baja low is the least complicated on/off lever that impacts downstream ridging. the squall/precip it creates in mexico releases plenty diabatic heating into the atmosphere which immediately pumps things up downstream. the longer it gets held back and we can delay that heating, the more we can keep those downstream heights down and have a punchers chance of that front end snow thump
We've stopped the north trend and will tick enough south to get that unwanted ice storm yet. I think better data gets into the models this evening, usually doesn't change much, but maybe tonight's 0z runs will give us something to hold on to
Storm5
Member
Still at least 48 hours for changes . Wouldn't wrote anything off at this point
NEGaweather
Member
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Storm5
Member
Its gonna be there due to the surface low track . Still have doubts its that strong with the massive CAD funneling down . Just have to wait and see
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Th
That looks like a big shift south! More flat and stronger high and more confluence.
Not writing anything off, not sure how you got that from my post, but fact is Rah NWS relies heavily on the NBM (it's literally in their AFD). So with the latest trends on that, they will start to change their thoughts and p-types most likely. That's what I was saying.
Wow. Talk about a powerful push of southerly wind fighting the CAD into Ga. 30+ wind gust out of the SOUTH below Macon. What a battle of airmasses. If one is hoping to scour out the CAD...
Well that's a interesting post...if accurate he's basically inducing that GFS/GEM particularly have some early data ingestion that others may not have... It's interesting that RGEM/CMC both moved the Baja further SW in initial runs with new data if so move toward GFS is slightly. I do not know if there's accuracy here though because wasn't under impression yesterday run was collecting full data and more tracking
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Idk who this cat is, or if he’s credible but it makes sense. Also, it’s more uplifting than the miserable
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Wedge locking in and will remain underdone til the last model cycle. For the younger guys on the board living in the direct Lee of the apps, this is going to be your 02’ I’m afraid. Need an act of god at this point
Idk who this cat is, or if he’s credible but it makes sense. Also, it’s more uplifting than the miserablebeing spewed in here currently
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Slower eject is better for us, we would stop the northward trend
LovingGulfLows
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Well the CMC ain't exactly looking like that great based on surface analysis. Mixing line up to NYC lol.
iGRXY
Member
We are trending to a massive ice storm now in the upstate. Some front end snow can’t be ruled out before a transition to sleet, but we could get a full 24 hours on the 2nd half as the Baja low interacts more you’re getting the switch to ZR.
Might need a jacket for Tuesday morning.
12z GFS:
12z GFS:
Brandon10
Member
This has quickly went from an I20 Gulf fear of suppression storm to a near cutter. How wrong were the globals if this verifies.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Stop looking at Surface charts. Read soundings, totally different story most times
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The Baja low is something we need to fix, but I think it's important to remember the other issue now.. And that's the Northern stream energy that has been trending towards digging West more. So it's almost like that is offsetting the slow release of the baja low. It's almost like the NS is waiting for the baja low so they can fire off in tandem & ruin all of our hopes & dreams in the Southeast.
That's why even though the GFS improves with the Baja low situation, it still amped to high hell.
That's why even though the GFS improves with the Baja low situation, it still amped to high hell.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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Scratch that...just slower. You can see it more amped and it's almost congrats Chicago. I imagine by tomorrow Chicago to Cleveland will be the big snow winners.
Stormlover
Member
lol, even has a warm nose in Ala then
LovingGulfLows
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I mean the primary low is all the way near Ohio now. Obviously the CMC is too overamped, but it goes without saying...not a great run.
Stormsfury
Member
Idk who this cat is, or if he’s credible but it makes sense. Also, it’s more uplifting than the miserable
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This is coming back to the point Webberweather made before. Baja lows are generally stubborn on wanting to get ejected out once they establish. IF we continue to see these even small slower, SW or W ticks, this flattens the flow downstream (US) and negates some of the ridge pumping
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Does anyone have the AIFS Ens Mean snowfall map for 6z? Since it’s the top performing model right now and the temperatures look like a fair assessment on pivotal, I think the snow map would be worth a look for all of us.
That's a slight shift south on the sno
That's a slight shift south with the snow field. Albeit very slight
That's a slight shift south with the snow field. Albeit very slight
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
12Z AIGFS flatter as well