Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

[Stormsfury]

The UKMET is not an awful model, especially not at 500mb, which is what ultimately is driving this event.

Huge problem is what's it doing at the surface, which basically defies physics. The wedging east of the apps still shows solid AG, which will cause a Miller B jump. Temps are likely too warm "south" of what it wants to depict as a "warm sector" (along with the Canadian).

Below are the 10m GFS wind and speed. Can't believe I'm typing this but likely more aligned with reality vs the Ukmet. Below that image is the GEM, strong wedge signature (AG) thru SC and into GA, however, has 50s and 60s in the Southern half of SC. Not happening with that stout of a wedge signature across the state. I clearly suspect the UKMET is missing the east of the Apps cold press period.

 

[rduwx]

Learning here… high pressure is what causes suppression via flow of cold air?

Basically yes. The stronger the HP, the more suppression of the storm track.

 

[BKWRN29]

Basically yes. The stronger the HP, the more suppression of the storm track.

Which would lead to more winter precip further south?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

There’s so much front end snow here. Then lights out. Another all timer sub 100hr run from the Euro. Unbelievable

 

[MSnowAtl]

Which would lead to more winter precip further south?

Yes. Might be more sleet than freezing and snow line moves further south.

 

[Stormsfury]

Baja low phases SUPER CLEANLY!

View attachment 186125

Based on the P-Type map, this depictions may allow the wedge to drop clear into Alabama from the NE!!!

 

[Makeitsnow]

 

[rduwx]

Which would lead to more winter precip further south?

Sure, but depends on what type of winter precip. You could be in the 20’s, but still not snow. Depends on the level of cold.

 

[Tarheel1]

Wow…. She’s a coming on 00z euro. Strongest modeled high it’s had yet. Record territory?

View attachment 186119

1899 February was 1063mb

 

[wow]

The cold press increases AND the baja blast came out entirely to load up the QPF.. the precip is done by the time the WWA pushes through NC.. this is going to be a helluva CAD event.

 

[TheBatman]

All the way back to Birmingham...geesh!!

Based on the P-Type map, this depictions may allow the wedge to drop clear into Alabama from the NE!!!

You don’t hardly ever see that.

 

[jrips27]

Man what….. Heavy ZR and below 25???

 

[weatherguy]

I've never seen a model show so much freezing rain here in N. AL. Yikes on the Canadian look. Anything over 2" QPF is catastrophic ZR.

 

[rburrel2]

The cold press increases AND the baja blast came out entirely to load up the QPF.. the precip is done by the time the WWA pushes through NC.. this is going to be a helluva CAD event.

Yep… like myfro said earlier… this is trending to a front end thump hammer job for the snow part… colder and drier out front with the cold press can maybe get lots of us in on some early and hefty snow accumulations before the 700-750mb nose pushes through…

The better cold press should start that finger band farther and farther south before it lifts north. Wouldn’t shock me if Atlanta to Columbia see a front end thump at this point.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Yes. Might be more sleet than freezing and snow line moves further south.

As of this moment, the Atlanta area is likely to see every type of precipitation, excluding hailstones. Mostly sleet, freezing rain, and some snow towards the end. Your mileage may vary significantly, with colder precipitation types to the northeast and warmer (freezing rain) to the south and west.

 

[Stormsfury]

You don’t hardly ever see that.

I can remmeber one event, I think 2004 this happened and the wedge made it central Eastern AL and NE AL. I remember actually forecasting that to happen. Wish I could remember what particular storm that was.

 

[Makeitsnow]

 

[Stormsfury]

View attachment 186132

Looks like Presidents Day February 2003 (on steroids).

 

[weatherguy]

ECMWF coming in further south.

 

[CltNative90]

Yep… like myfro said earlier… this is trending to a front end thump hammer job for the snow part… colder and drier out front with the cold press can maybe get lots of us in on some early and hefty snow accumulations before the 700-750mb node pushes through…

Definitely giving me 2014 vibes with the front end thump. Dry slot ended up keeping the freezing rain at bay on that one.

 

[J.C.]

One thing of note that I'm not seeing more consistently is how early temps go below the freezing mark on Saturday.

Everyone above the I-20 corridor is at or below freezing by Saturday afternoon.

 

[Makeitsnow]

-10c 925mb temps over north ga. Doesn't get any more crazy than that

 

[MSnowAtl]

One thing of note that I'm not seeing more consistently is how early temps go below the freezing mark on Saturday.

Everyone above the I-20 corridor is at or below freezing by Saturday afternoon.

View attachment 186133

Falls in line with the GFS

 

[LukeBarrette]

View attachment 186132

When you think a storm can’t trend any crazier it does. This is look that would rival some of the most historic storms in recorded history

 

[J.C.]

Falls in line with the GFS

Icon now as well.

 

[John1122]

Man what….. Heavy ZR and below 25???View attachment 186130View attachment 186131

I actually experienced that around Christmas 1998. We ended up with 3 inches of ice over a 36 hour period. Zr with temps in the mid 20s is a whole different world than 31, 30 etc.

 

[hky1894]

The euro drops .40-.50 of freezing rain on top of 12-16 inches of snow in western NC this would be apocalyptic level damage with temps in lower 20s. Assuming most of that would be sleet instead. Either way this is a historic storm depicted by the euro.

 

[Arcc]

Q

I can remmeber one event, I think 2004 this happened and the wedge made it central Eastern AL and NE AL. I remember actually forecasting that to happen. Wish I could remember what particular storm that was.

Yep, had an ice storm then in Cleburne County with somewhere around ~.35 or so of ice.

Happened again in February 2014, but the dry slot saved us.

 

[Stormsfury]

-10c 925mb temps over north ga. Doesn't get any more crazy than that

View attachment 186134

Coldest 925mb readings in Southern SC so far shown up to this point, much thicker wedge column. Getting close to sleet sounding down close to Charleston!

 

[Ksnow33]

There will be a ton of sleet with this system. The Euro doesn't do that well differentiating between ZR and sleet on maps.

 

[Sky86]

-10c 925mb temps over north ga. Doesn't get any more crazy than that

View attachment 186134

What's the 850's like?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Euro is 15-20 hours of front end snow in the upstate before the scary part. Unreal

 

[chase5ash]

Graphic warning

 

[Stormsfury]

Euro is 15-20 hours of front end snow in the upstate before the scary part. Unreal

Pasting sleet/ZR over that is going to be an absolute cement job!

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Oh my, what a suite of 0z runs! I would have loved to see the GFS another tick south than north, and that Baja Low is trying to cause mischief. The Euro high is so strong it is able keep a good press but I would rather that low stay farther back. Good to see the Euro trending better with the AI models. But oh my goodness at what is being shown, this amount of precip is going to cause problems across this section of the country. It's truly a shame we can't keep this warm nose away and have it all be snow; would be incredible!

 

[Makeitsnow]

Ridiculous

 

[JP152]

ECMWF coming in further south.

View attachment 186138

 

[tempo47]

How many more days before this is more than likely gonna be semi locked in with only minor adjustments?

 

[Pilotwx]

I think NW NC , Foothills and Mountains area up into VA stay all snow, HP will be strong

 

[Makeitsnow]

What's the 850's like?

Same time period