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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

KyloG said:
Latest analogs…those any good 🤔

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The surface high evolution here is similar to January 1988, except the cold high that's entering the US is probably going to be even stronger this time. In fact, it could threaten or break some records over the Upper Midwest.

You could probably also argue we get an even stronger warm nose aloft because the background air mass that it's originating from is a good bit warmer and moist now than it was then too.

I can see this being similar to January 1988 but a much more juiced up and maybe a slightly more amped version of it.


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You can see the main feature here why the GFS is so much snowier and less icy compared to the AI team. Baja low stays completely separate from the trough in the Midwest. Euro is somewhere in the middle. Seems like this is the feature we need to pull for. I agree with Wow that more of the Baja low being left behind has been the theme in the past, so maybe one time the old operationals are correct
 
Webberweather53 said:
The surface high evolution here is similar to January 1988, except the cold high that's entering the US is probably going to be even stronger this time. In fact, it could threaten or break some records over the Upper Midwest.

You could probably also argue we get an even stronger warm nose aloft because the background air mass that it's originating from is a good bit warmer and moist now than it was then too.

I can see this being similar to January 1988 but a much more juiced up and maybe a slightly more amped version of it.


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personally hoping for a more snowfall scenario here if we're practically doomed at getting ice anyways, Atlanta may not be in a great spot but I'm just hoping my area is in a better spot being closer to the mountains
 
Webberweather53 said:
The surface high evolution here is similar to January 1988, except the cold high that's entering the US is probably going to be even stronger this time. In fact, it could threaten or break some records over the Upper Midwest.

You could probably also argue we get an even stronger warm nose aloft because the background air mass that it's originating from is a good bit warmer and moist now than it was then too.

I can see this being similar to January 1988 but a much more juiced up and maybe a slightly more amped version of it.


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The potential is huge here if we could keep this as a west to east slider
 
griteater said:
My thoughts on this setup at the moment

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Agreed thanks Grit! Over/under on the discussion turning to the "front end thump" for CLT? :D

Miller A/B Hybrids are how we do winter storms in the Carolina Piedmont the last decade, so this I guess is to be expected. Maybe we can get the CAD wedge strong and deep enough to get the classic "front end thump" before it transitions to IP/ZR.

And then we get Feb 2004 at the end of the month! Let's go! ❄️
 
griteater said:
There is variance. Miller B Dec 2002 didn’t have any problem with precip, but yes, some Miller B’s struggle. Miller A/B Jan 2010 had decent precip but not as much as expected
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If I remember correctly, January 2010 had a blow up of thunderstorms along the Gulf coast that oriented in a way that cut steady precip off about 10-12 hours earlier than expected.
 
CaryWx said:
Yes but same AI op runs are moving in the same direction just opposite I believe.
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This is true and i'm not sure what to make of that. With traditional nwp, when ops have little or no ensemble support they are usually less trusted, but i'll let a met speak to the AI guidance since i have little experience using it.
 
KyloG said:
ICON is definitely an outlier compared to the Euro/EuroAI...Euro in the middle so we have the range of possibilities though to evaluate

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ICON in the GFS camp....this still 4-5 days out...we might not know until Wednesday who is right

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Webberweather53 said:
The surface high evolution here is similar to January 1988, except the cold high that's entering the US is probably going to be even stronger this time. In fact, it could threaten or break some records over the Upper Midwest.

You could probably also argue we get an even stronger warm nose aloft because the background air mass that it's originating from is a good bit warmer and moist now than it was then too.

I can see this being similar to January 1988 but a much more juiced up and maybe a slightly more amped version of it.


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There was over a foot here in 1988 👀

Supposedly 18 inches somewhere in the state

The GEFS actually went towards the snowier EPS runs earlier 😳
 
From my personal experience through the years, If the CAD is as strong as modeled, there will be a large area of primarily sleet. Where that sets up will take time (maybe even to go time). I remember storms where ZR is forecasted and it ends up all sleet. Still a lot of changes/trends will occur on the models the next few days. Right now, I keep thinking of the 1996 storm.
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TheWeatherDriver said:
The high temps across the south east and mid Atlantic are going to be mild on Thursday. Wouldn’t this hurt our soil temps and dry the atmosphere out? Let me look at the dew point first…
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It won't matter if Winter precip is falling deep in the 20s to teens.
 
tarheels2 said:
Brother I am going keep it real with you. The hyperbole on everything single thing is annoying as hell. That’s banter. Put it there. Jus trying to see what is going on w the weather that’s all
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Mods it's time for this clown to go!
Those of us that have been around along time have watched Mitch grow into a great forecaster with an awesome platform. For some new troll to come in and personally attack one of our own should not be tolerated...another keyboard warrior we don't need!
Anyway as far as the setup many of you have referenced the 88 set up and rightfully so. The forecasts today and model output are eerily similar. Rain and freezing rain with sleet mixed in. Gives me chills honestly. The dynamics are complex and hopefully hold many surprises come Saturday night!
 
iwantsouthernsnow123 said:
While euro is still trying to bring it in, it does seem like EPS is slowly but steadily signaling for it to keep it out west.
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Part of me wants to play the streak here with leaving it back or stringing it out some. AI models make me think that won't be the case. Can't rule it out yet! EPS trend thru 0z.

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Ross said:
fwiw i think the deterministic non-ai regular euro looks most realistic to me in terms of "least janky meteorology" for lack of a better term
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We are ALWAYS complaining that the SW low never wants to come out when we need it to in progressive patterns. How ironic that in our blocked pattern it wants to B line straight up our tail pipe when we need it to hang back.
 
iwantsouthernsnow123 said:
Glen Burns is a perfect example of meteorologist input. This dude is an Atlanta legend. However it really does concern me when you see him talking so highly about a system this far out so highly. This is not this mans first rodeo, he's seen it all.
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This is banter and should probably be continued in the banter thread... but he is leaning heavy into dinosaur data. After last week I'm convinced the AI suites are a more solid way to see possibilities. Weathernext got the snow placement and amounts pretty much dead on for GA. It's less exciting with models that are more accurate, but ultimately less stressful and frustrating. This will be the new way.
 
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CaryWx said:
Yeah it may just be my traditional conditioning but still feel we are in the ensemble dominate space right now. Still, AI ops and all that....
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If the tables were flipped I feel like a lot of people would not be buying the AI ops solutions near as much. Also it just seems like that strong of a high will not allow this to go but so far north .
 
SnowNiner said:
We are ALWAYS complaining that the SW low never wants to come out when we need it to in progressive patterns. How ironic that in our blocked pattern it wants to B line straight up our tail pipe when we need it to hang back.
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i mean maybe it comes out. maybe it doesnt. honestly i have no idea how that plays out, not even a hunch. gotta wait on more cycles, as boring as that is
tractor girl said:
This is banter and should probably be continued in the banter thread... but he is leaning heavy into dinosaur data. After last week I'm convinced the AI suites are a more solid way to see possibilities. Weathernext got the snow placement and amounts pretty much dead on for GA. It's less exciting with models that are more accurate, but ultimately less stressful and frustrating. This will be the new way.
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let me add to this in a non-banter way. old, established, tenured mets are unambiguous value-adds to any major storm. however, you're right, they rely on what they know and i think are naturally skeptical of new model products despite their efficacy. can't teach an old dog new tricks is real. i interned at a certain raleigh station my last semester of college and saw this with a certain well known meteorologist (rhymes with dishel) with CAMs back in 2017-2018. while their forecasting acumen shouldn't be discounted, i do think you need to read their posts with that context and lens
 
GSP not as enthused

As for the even further out potential system for the weekend, model
guidance keeps the high pressure parked over the central part of the
country and eventually makes its way into the area. There is much
discrepancy and uncertainty if the frontal boundary is able to make
anything of the weak moisture return. Friday and Saturday could see
a mix of precip but again, its too far out. There is a possibility
for a wintry mix as the transition zone and colder air move in. A
few of the individual models show a signal for snow, but there is
still much uncertainty. Any shift north or south of the potential
boundary could be the difference in rain, snow, or nothing at all.
And as this location has seen again and again, it`s all a matter of
whether or not the cold air can even make it in time. Will continue
to monitor as this system is going to change this far out.
 
NCWeatherNow said:
This is what the sounding looks like on the 06z euro for this part of NC.

Honestly more of a sleet setup if this verifies here
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After seeing this, I pulled my sounding up and it’s fairly similar down my way. Not gonna see much ZR at all with this type of a sounding, and honestly would probably be snow if the rates were to be heavier.
 
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