• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

NBAcentel said:
This digging trend though is concerning for the southern regions that might see ice though, given its digging more, its bringing in a lot more WAA, and also giving more time for the high pressure to be out ahead of the shortwave and wedge areas east of the apps
Click to expand...
so this is just a difference in the connotation of "concerning". it has been so long since "concerning" hasn't mean "we are losing the storm" lol
 
bouncycorn said:
This year, models have persistently tried to park the SE ridge and slowly eroded it away in the 120 to 216hr timeframe.
Click to expand...
This is kinda my main point of hope for potentially (again, assuming we do have everything in place for wintry) allowing a more amped storm to not include quite as much mixing. Still, just a hollering ZR signal on the most reliable guidance. Have a hard time seeing a big ZR somewhere being avoided unless we get a flatter storm.
 
bouncycorn said:
This year, models have persistently tried to park the SE ridge and slowly eroded it away in the 120 to 216hr timeframe.
Click to expand...
Actually concerning.. If this shows up still Tuesday or Wednesday. My preparations are starting whether we get something or not. Word needs to get out about this potential.
 
Tsappfrog20 said:
Can you share why that concerning? I don’t understand thanks. What is it showing?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Maybe it is this....not so sure....maximizing ice potential rather than snow

How the Digging Trough Affects Southern Ice Risk:
  • Increased WAA/Moisture: As the trough digs, it often amplifies and forces warmer, moist air from the Gulf or Atlantic northward, creating strong warm air advection (WAA).
  • Enhanced "Wedge" Setup: The digging process often coincides with high pressure building to the north, which drives cold, dense air down the eastern side of the Appalachian Mountains.
  • Time for Cold Air Retention: A slower ("digging") storm system provides more time for this arctic high-pressure area to establish a shallow, cold layer (the wedge) east of the Apps.
  • Ice Creation: When this persistent cold layer (sub-freezing at the surface) is hit by the warm, moist air (WAA) moving in from the south, it results in significant freezing rain, sleet, and ice.
Essentially, the digging trend allows a, "southern stream shortwave to undercut and move ahead of the northern stream," which keeps the surface low in a position that locks in that cold, dammed air, maximizing ice potential rather than snow for areas like the Carolinas, Georgia, and the Mid-Atlantic
 
bouncycorn said:
This year, models have persistently tried to park the SE ridge and slowly eroded it away in the 120 to 216hr timeframe.
Click to expand...
That’s a good point. Same for them trying to drop more troughiness in the Pacific Northwest.

If we can make minor adjustments there(on the ai models/euro) in the next few cycles(like what’s been happening all year), we can get back to a snowier look for the south.
 
Ross said:
it is a data point that anybody with a modicum of professionalism/legitimacy immediately began howling like a hit dog the moment the EPS snow accumulations hit the presses
Click to expand...

It definitely struck me to see the EPS that aggressive

But we gotta a long way to go because since 2021 everything hyped up here didn't pan out that great haha
 
Ross said:
it is a data point that anybody with a modicum of professionalism/legitimacy immediately began howling like a hit dog the moment the EPS snow accumulations hit the presses
Click to expand...
I'm still personally thinking it's going to at least go somewhat north, It's a very strong high pressure though so idk for certain. But given history of these setups I think it will. Your thoughts? I'd personally rather get a bunch of rain rather than 2" of FZR personally. If snow comes south I'd be happy but I do NOT want FZR.
 
Brent said:
It definitely struck me to see the EPS that aggressive

But we gotta a long way to go because since 2021 everything hyped up here didn't pan out that great haha
Click to expand...
when did the wheels fall off on that event? total kick in the gonads. if i remember there was similar consensus that just simply shifted west. i think this signal is a little better here than what we saw from that one. would be interesting to go back to that thread.
 
Ross said:
when did the wheels fall off on that event? total kick in the gonads. if i remember there was similar consensus that just simply shifted west. i think this signal is a little better here than what we saw from that one. would be interesting to go back to that thread.
Click to expand...
About to personally try to look into it and see if I can figure out when that actually happened, because i am curious. If I recall correctly it was within 90 hours but its a while ago so I could be wrong.

Edit: Just realized this was almost 5 years ago, cant believe how long its been.
 
Ross said:
when did the wheels fall off on that event? total kick in the gonads. if i remember there was similar consensus that just simply shifted west. i think this signal is a little better here than what we saw from that one. would be interesting to go back to that thread.
Click to expand...
That signal fell off because the state of tropical forcing around that time in 2021, it was around the maritime continent, it resulted in a more retracted jet as we got closer to it and lower heights/more westward dumping
 
Brent said:
TWC with a potential winter storm already on Saturday. It's Sunday night

Yeah... What is happening haha
Click to expand...
Just for scientific purposes I went to check TWC just to see what it would say and said this for Raleigh. Now how accurate this is only time will tell
41bcf5c2fea5305b3ff6a42442b449ac.jpg


Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk
 
One more reason against additional amplification on the euro ai…

We’re already at widespread 3 to 3.5 inches of liquid total in northern AL/GA/Southern TN, in mid January.

We really think this thing can trend more in that direction? I’d assume we will see some backing off if anything.
 
iwantsouthernsnow123 said:
I'm still personally thinking it's going to at least go somewhat north, It's a very strong high pressure though so idk for certain. But given history of these setups I think it will. Your thoughts? I'd personally rather get a bunch of rain rather than 2" of FZR personally. If snow comes south I'd be happy but I do NOT want FZR.
Click to expand...
i have a lot of thoughts, which may spur me to finally start that substack i've been putting off for years. my main one, personally i think ice will almost certainly happen. there is no easy on/off switch, no lever to pull, that will clean up the transition zones. a high that strong and robust and advantageously positioned is going to allow low level cold air to seamlessly bleed into the deep south
 
rburrel2 said:
One more reason against additional amplification on the euro ai…

We’re already at widespread 3 to 3.5 inches of liquid total in northern AL/GA/Southern TN, in mid January.

We really think this thing can trend more in that direction? I’d assume we will see some backing off if anything.
Click to expand...
Thought about this too, there are some deviously high QPF members on the 18z EC AI ENS. This is a very high prob of 24h QPF >1.0 for a wintry system:

1768785606746.png
 
Ross said:
i have a lot of thoughts, which may spur me to finally start that substack i've been putting off for years. my main one, personally i think ice will almost certainly happen. there is no easy on/off switch, no lever to pull, that will clean up the transition zones. a high that strong and robust and advantageously positioned is going to allow low level cold air to seamlessly bleed into the deep south
Click to expand...
Yeah I'm currently trying to find previous forecast of Feb 2021 and figure out where things went wrong and see how it compares with currently. I'll let you know what I find
 
NBAcentel said:
That signal fell off because the state of tropical forcing around that time in 2021, it was around the maritime continent, it resulted in a more retracted jet as we got closer to it and lower heights/more westward dumping
Click to expand...
is that a threat here? telling on myself but i have never really been a tropical forcing guy
 
I do tend to think that a NW trend isn’t a thing right now. The last few years we have trended to a more progressive type of pattern with positively tilted troughs that have prevented NW trends like we are used to. That on top of the strength of of the surface high is just going to limit how far north this can realistically go.
 
iGRXY said:
I do tend to think that a NW trend isn’t a thing right now. The last few years we have trended to a more progressive type of pattern with positively tilted troughs that have prevented NW trends like we are used to. That on top of the strength of of the surface high is just going to limit how far north this can realistically go.
Click to expand...
You would think if a NW trend was feasible, there wouldn't be the tremendous model and ensemble agreement with a southern solution which we already have at this stage. In my opinion, that further locks in the forecast to an extent.
 
I can't remember seeing a potential winter storm with so many of the things needed to make it happen in place this far out. The one thing that worries me right now is suppression of the storm track for folks in North Carolina when all is said and done. This will be a fun storm to track no matter what happens in the end.
 
iGRXY said:
I do tend to think that a NW trend isn’t a thing right now. The last few years we have trended to a more progressive type of pattern with positively tilted troughs that have prevented NW trends like we are used to. That on top of the strength of of the surface high is just going to limit how far north this can realistically go.
Click to expand...
I think you’re right. I will say it wouldn’t shock me at all to see this trend south over the next several days especially if models keep the forecast HP so strong. Then on the flip side of that it wouldn’t shock me to see some correction north in the last 72 hours or so after several days of south trends. That has been something that’s happened with a lot of our bigger storms over the years
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top