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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

JimBobs said:
Everybody seems a little out over their skis. Gotta just watch for a couple days. This could be a total whiff for everybody south of VA and WV.
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Very well could. But not sure about the over the skis part, though. Nobody's making a forecast. Just enjoying what appears to be the first legitimate threat we've had in forever. I can assure you that nobody on this board is going to wait around for a couple of days to talk about it. 🤣
 
ChattaVOL said:

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And never ever discount that STRONG JANUARY SUN.
 
NCSNOW said:
Be carefull. That happens cause its usually 29-32 temps,fighting latent heat release battles etc.

1040HP camped out and temps in low mid 20s, is flashing red light. It will freeze every drop
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In Atlanta it never varied off 32, and poured all night. Up to 4 or 5 inches of ice in places. Just needs a steady inflow of cold air, and it's disaster. Buckhead looked like Tunguska.
 
hky1894 said:
I feel like the 18z euro run extrapolated was going to be massive in NC.
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Yeah a massive ice storm. Extremely worried for CAD regions and upper south regions for a violent ice storm. These aren’t fun and not something you want to pray for. They are scary especially at night. With the scale of this winter storm it will also mean more extended power outages .. even longer than normal due to crews most likely being run thin across the SE.
 
dsaur said:
In Atlanta it never varied off 32, and poured all night. Up to 4 or 5 inches of ice in places. Just needs a steady inflow of cold air, and it's disaster. Buckhead looked like Tunguska.
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Right you are, Tony, unfortunately! During the back to back weekend ATL area icestorms of late Jan 2000, a large portion of both was with temps no colder than 30-31. I kept checking my thermometer.

But what’s interesting is that ice seemed to accrue more when the winds were lighter and the rain lighter.
 
KyloG said:
One thing the Euro AI is doing is scooting that low in the west further east/quicker. Would be be nice if the PV would also scoot a little further east.

View attachment 185266
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We have the pattern. We have the ingredients. Just gotta get the details right with the timing of the TPV movement & associated surface high, and the southern stream wave

This is a tremendous look precipitation-wise here on the 18z Euro as northern stream shortwave phases in and kicks out the Baja wave into long fetch SW flow streaming across the southern half of the conus. Would like to see more cold air work in ahead of this of course

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NBAcentel said:
It’s also worth noting to that models tend to underestimate sleet in setups where they show biblical ZR, this 925 cold tongue is rather strong. The euro shows ZR falling but for many areas, that’s likely all sleet. View attachment 185279
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If that run would’ve kept going would it have switched to snow or stayed ice tho whole time?


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griteater said:
We have the pattern. We have the ingredients. Just gotta get the details right with the timing of the TPV movement & associated surface high, and the southern stream wave

This is a tremendous look precipitation-wise here on the 18z Euro as northern stream shortwave phases in and kicks out the Baja wave into long fetch SW flow streaming across the southern half of the conus. Would like to see more cold air work in ahead of this of course

View attachment 185280
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Split flow for the win. I noticed that a large portion of the biggest SE winter storms had a split flow H5 signature with moist WSW H5 flow for the subtropical jet underneath moving in tandem with a cold NW flow of the polar jet directly to its north in the Plains states.
 
GaWx said:
Right you are, Tony, unfortunately! During the back to back weekend ATL area icestorms of late Jan 2000, a large portion of both was with temps no colder than 30-31. I kept checking my thermometer.

But what’s interesting is that ice seemed to accrue more when the winds were lighter and the rain lighter.
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Hard to believe, but that 2000 storm was the last ice storm of any consequence IMBY.

At the time, I was working in Chamblee, and even some of the surface roads had ice in shaded areas. Not unusual at all with sleet or snow, but this was ice accrual during 30-32 degrees
 
Tsappfrog20 said:
It would most likely be sleet and a lot of of it


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Yep. I mean you can’t prog where it’s going past this(or I can’t) but it’s just really hard to get freezing rain with that thick of lower level cold. Now if it was -2 or warmer then yes.

That run would’ve been an awful ice storm most likely from FAY to CAE though.
 
you guys know this but i think it's pretty irresponsible to chart out p-type corridors at this juncture. typically sleet steals from the forecasted ice corridors. that ice accrual strip may be only 50 miles in width when it's all said and done but that strip will look like a hurricane passed.
 
Ross said:
you guys know this but i think it's pretty irresponsible to chart out p-type corridors at this juncture. typically sleet steals from the forecasted ice corridors. that ice accrual strip may be only 50 miles in width when it's all said and done but that strip will look like a hurricane passed.
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One of those storms we had in like 2014 had a devastating ice storm that was like two counties wide
 
To have a significant impact on roads, you would probably need ZR falling at less than 30. Depending on rates, I would imagine once you get down into the 20's, you're talking about sleet.
 
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