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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

What’s our biggest worry to watch out for trend wise as a potential fail mode for this threat? Seems locked in, but I wish it was closer!
 
So far, Memphis, Jackson and Huntsville are holding off any wintry mention for this upcoming weekend in their latest noon AFD’s. 🧐
 
256wx said:
What’s our biggest worry to watch out for trend wise as a potential fail mode for this threat? Seems locked in, but I wish it was closer!
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Snow in the Southeast is never locked in, until it's physically falling. HP timing and evolution of the wave in the Desert SW are two things to keep an eye on. The mentioned wave should trigger precipitation blossoming in the southern Plains in about 5 days, as currently modeled. To my untrained eye this is more of a classic overrunning event initially aided by Pac moisture, with Gulf moisture then some Atl development.
 
256wx said:
What’s our biggest worry to watch out for trend wise as a potential fail mode for this threat? Seems locked in, but I wish it was closer!
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The biggest concern thinking ahead is surface temps not cold enough (ie the thing trends north with time). So far, she's trended south quite a bit. Hopefully this continues substantially.
 
TheWeatherDriver said:
For those of you heading to the AMS Conference this system may happen while you’re away 😭
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Good thing I went last year in New Orleans! My girlfriend is heading down to present some research and she will not be happy if she misses snow haha
 
bouncycorn said:
The biggest concern thinking ahead is surface temps not cold enough (ie the thing trends north with time). So far, she's trended south quite a bit. Hopefully this continues substantially.
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I'm never gonna be concerned about suppression. That has burned me once or twice, but it will take years of that to match how many times I've been burned by temps from a NW trending storm track.
 
Arcc said:
I'm never gonna be concerned about suppression. That has burned me once or twice, but it will take years of that to match how many times I've been burned by temps from a NW trending storm track.
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I say this half jokingly but if you do the math we hope for a couple days of a southward/suppressed trend and then a couple days of N/NW trend to get to roughly the same look as the 12z model suite. Win win*

*except the power grid
 
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I trust the weather channel app in the long range as far as I can throw it, but I don’t know the last time I’ve seen this level of accumulation forecast at this distance. Speaks to the level of agreement we’re seeing.
 
Yeah I see why we’ve trended to extreme cold and a monster upper Midwest high in the medium range and a big uptick in snow/ice chances during this window

North Pacific storm track is more blocked up near model initialization, which strengthens the western ridge/+PNA more, sending a big chunk of the tropospheric polar vortex into the conus. This in a much stronger surface high entering the us and our current storm digging in more over the southern us also contributes to the -NAO in the medium range.

This is a pattern trend we have come very familiar with this winter.


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mydoortotheworld said:
I say this half jokingly but if you do the math we hope for a couple days of a southward/suppressed trend and then a couple days of N/NW trend to get to roughly the same look as the 12z model suite. Win win*

*except the power grid
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This is actually how things sometimes go at this lead-time.. or they show up big, disappear, and come back around hour 144
 
I'm going to get a good sleet storm out of this pattern! Always the waa to put a fly in the ointment, but to get sleet I have to risk zr. I've had a number of great sleet storms, it's why it's my favorite, but only two killer zr storms. It's really close, as bad as those storms were, but I'll take the trade. I'll live thru some bad zr to get some great sledding sleet storms.
 
dsaur said:
I'm going to get a good sleet storm out of this pattern! Always the waa to put a fly in the ointment, but to get sleet I have to risk zr. I've had a number of great sleet storms, it's why it's my favorite, but only two killer zr storms. It's really close, as bad as those storms were, but I'll take the trade. I'll live thru some bad zr to get some great sledding sleet storms.
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Skeet storms are awesome! Stays on the ground forever


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jackendrickwx said:
Let's keep trending that SER down please.

View attachment 185187

Here's the blueprint for disaster, H5 analysis from 12z 12/05/2002:
View attachment 185188
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That's sorta been the trend this winter. Ride her till she bucks ya.

The -NAO looks to be in place this time, which checks a big box. I'm not sure we'll see a 1050 HP over MN, but the agreement for strong HP up in that area can't be ignored. If the -NAO is in place, then I would not favor a big NW trend at the last minute for sure.

We certainly appear to be aligning the stars and creating a broad path to victory. Hopefully, it continues. It might change tomorrow, but the amount of model support certainly has my attention, as well as pretty much all the big boxes being checked for a MAJOR winter storm in the area.
 
NEGaweather said:

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Glenn Burns is serious about this threat


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When Glenn Burns is saying something out of retirement.. That's when you start taking the threat seriously.
 
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