Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

[SnowNiner]

Past few runs of the GEFS snow mean through day 12

View attachment 184646

This is really cool. Getting constant pings on op runs of all the models, but more importantly at this range the ensembles are the best I’ve ever seen.

6 inch mean for clt? That just can’t last though can it? Something it’s going to fall apart.

I’m just really surprised by such heavy ensembles.

 

[KyloG]

Can’t recall blocking this extreme in the extended

 

[Tarheel1]

Well that's quite a GFS run here View attachment 184624

NW trends! ️

 

[KyloG]

AI Euro ENS going nuts for next weekend…

 

[KyloG]

When was the last time the week 2 snow mean was 3”+ down into Atlanta

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

When was the last time the week 2 snow mean was 3”+ down into Atlanta

View attachment 184923

Looks too good to be true. Sounds like a long 2 weeks of tracking. This might just be the best window we get all winter. Better not miss this one.

 

[ncjoaquin]

 

[LukeBarrette]

Rename this to 23rd to 25th

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Give me a break with this feast or famine depiction for next weekend-

 

[Engeo]

Give me a break with this feast or famine depiction for next weekend- View attachment 185029

That has to be ice below the sharp cutoff, though.

 

[Arcc]

That has to be ice below the sharp cutoff, though.

No doubt. The GFS is just being stupid, shocker.

 

[Pops]

No doubt. The GFS is just being stupid, shocker.

Check Canadian out

 

[NBAcentel]

 

[Arcc]

Check Canadian out

Yep. Might as well accept the fact that with that surface high, the trend will only be colder. Hope for sleet.

 

[NBAcentel]

Another round of overrruning

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

View attachment 185033

In the .01% probability that a storm actually works out this time, I vote we title the thread “Winter Storm Duracell”

 

[Stormdoc]

Another round of overrruning View attachment 185036

Now this is what I call overrunning. Good old fashioned direct west to east conveyor belt of moisture that keeps flowing into cold air like one of those moving walkways at the airport. Good riddance to the wimpy overrunning weak sauce we had today.

 

[KyloG]

I swear if this one snows in Florida- Georgia and rains in NC…

 

[KyloG]

I swear if this one snows in Florida- Georgia and rains in NC…

View attachment 185055

Its no wonder...

 

[SD]

Thread title updated

 

[Mitch West]

12z Euro AI has it. Super paw paw maw maw

 

[rburrel2]

Sigh. Massive change on the euro ai… I would prefer if not be trending more amped like that. If the Baja cut off comes out that fast we’re getting more rain/ice than snow.

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

This thread is probably about to blow up. But here's the MJO from ECMFW. This thing is trying to race from phase 6, straight to phase 8 within like 5-7 days.

 

[KyloG]

HP straight connected to Siberia...if we somehow rain with this

 

[LukeBarrette]

Posted the wrong image still my goodness

 

[Webberweather53]

12z Euro AI has it. Super paw paw maw maw View attachment 185070View attachment 185071

Lol +3-6C 850 temps with low 20s surface temps is a true mega CAD wedge

 

[rburrel2]

The gfs ai was like that too, but worse. So amped and rainy is still on the table unfortunately. Need the euro to look good here.

 

[wow]

Last frame of the Canadian in the process of dropping sub zero temps into the SE

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Its no wonder...

View attachment 185057

Nowhere to go down there. That ridge boundary is sick

 

[KyloG]

12z Euro AI has it. Super paw paw maw maw View attachment 185070View attachment 185071

That would be fun...hopefully a ton of sleet for us

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

The gfs ai was like that too, but worse. So amped and rainy is still on the table unfortunately. Need the euro to look good here.

GFS AI 12z was actually much much better.

 

[Webberweather53]

We've really got all the very basic ingredients we need to get snow/ice in and around this time period, and possibly from multiple storms at that.

A strong subtropical jet supplanted by a phase 8 MJO event providing us with tons of candidates in the pipeline, coupled with a brutally cold arctic air mass that gets here first (unlike today's event) is a fantastic recipe to make some real magic happen. We'll worry about details later.

 

[KyloG]

Euro AI goes below freezing Saturday and doesn't go above freezing until Tuesday afternoon, in the mean time this much precip falls Sat-Sun. Seems like a reasonable solution...

 

[CaryWx]

View attachment 185076
Posted the wrong image still my goodness

Is this a worse or better run than the 0z?

 

[wow]

Sigh. Massive change on the euro ai… I would prefer if not be trending more amped like that. If the Baja cut off comes out that fast we’re getting more rain/ice than snow.

Yeah, even 60 hrs out the low jumped NE... regardless, the big one is coming.

 

[hky1894]

This look is how you get massive winter storm for somebody hopefully not only the Mid-Atlantic. That Baja wave ejecting with HP sliding in could be huge.

 

[CaryWx]

We've really got all the very basic ingredients we need to get snow/ice in and around this time period, and possibly from multiple storms at that.

A strong subtropical jet supplanted by a phase 8 MJO event providing us with tons of candidates in the pipeline, coupled with a brutally cold arctic air mass that gets here first (unlike today's event) is a fantastic recipe to make some real magic happen. We'll worry about details later.

Real players coming-in this time. Not the JV team of set-ups looks like. Timing still to be sorted out but it's right there.

 

[tempo47]

Euro AI goes below freezing Saturday and doesn't go above freezing until Tuesday afternoon, in the mean time this much precip falls Sat-Sun. Seems like a reasonable solution...

View attachment 185078View attachment 185079

and this is the model we want showing this out of all of them correct?

 

[jackendrickwx]

Might be an incoming here

 

[jackendrickwx]

... oh my