OK, little fella. Just hang out here in sunny California a little while longer.
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
i think if we're calling this triple phasing than we're losing the plot some. yes, different pieces of northern stream energy interacted with the baja low in a way that strengthened the longwave trough enough to pump heights downstream. but i viewed it as a clumsy interchange, i mean it's not like everything came together and we have 1993 again on our hands
(this is a strong storm but not 1993 strong)
Packsox03
Member
Exactly what I was expecting to get that solution
We might be finally easing off the amped run stuff now.
No change to the Rockie trough through 60.
iGRXY
Member
GFS is not going the way of the EURO. In fact there’s more separation between the ULL and the N/S
ChattaVOL
Member
Does the 0z GFS have some of the flight data in it?
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TreyAustin
Member
I think 18-24 inches is def a possibility for areas north of Montgomery County
Sky86
Member
Did the UAS get put into tonight's runs?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
This is feeding in HH data now too. We may see a jump back on the others if they load ot too
iGRXY
Member
Getting lower heights out in the Ne is giving us a better cold press out aheadBufordWX
Member
GFS has wintery precipitation well underway for N MS, N AL, and TN by Friday afternoon.
It’s fair to bet on a warmer solution, but the arctic high should slow the Baja down right? I know it likes to be slow anyways, so shouldn’t this be two ways the warmer solution doesn’t work out?
We might be about to get another stupid good GFS run, looks a smidge colder but Idk, I'm horrible at projecting
iGRXY
Member
I’ve got a feeling the 85 north crew are about to get bombed in a good way
Yeah, but that met prognosticator from the posted video
had mentioned way earlier the gfs struggles with handling these waves. Who knows
You can see how the Baja low is further from California too
Small changes make big differences
Tsappfrog20
Member
I believe I read that some of the data was in there tonight
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72 hour GFS. Better cold push for the Alabama folks.
iGRXY
Member
Yep. Just a small tweak in the NE pushed the snow line down 30 miles
wow
Member
GFS holding steady looking at the overall reads so far at 78
beanskip
Member
850 0C line considerably further north at 81 hours vs. 12z. Barely over N.C. line.
EDIT: Even more pronounced at 87 hours, esp. in northern Alabama and northern Ga.
EDIT: Even more pronounced at 87 hours, esp. in northern Alabama and northern Ga.
blueheronNC
Member
Looks like the moisture is a tick or two slower to arrive but also a better antecedent cold push
rburrel2
Member
GFS AI is a couple degrees colder at the surface during the middle of the storm for everyone.
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Would it be fair to assume the GFS should have a better grasp on this system since it’s on the west coast of the US instead of the east coast? Also since the GFS is getting more data wouldn’t it be more accurate the next few cycles?
It appeared from the post from earlier that at least some data would be in the 0z GFS.
She's on the move. I think it is coming out a smidge too late to fully phase early. Should be a good run...I think.
iGRXY
Member
This is about to be an extremely long duration run again
ChattaVOL
Member
What a beaut
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Looks about a 75 mile shift south on the GFS for the western folks.
Can you verify that!?!?
BKWRN29
Member
Just saw a local met on FB say he thinks the GFS does because it actually picked up the previous snow well before the euro.
GFS
18z Saturday has been my benchmark for posting temps the past couple of days for the ATL area because that is when the majority of the area has shifted to NE winds and temps fall to or below the freezing mark. The 00z has cooled back off slightly from the warmer 18z run, and closer to 12z earlier today.
00z
18z
00z
18z
Makeitsnow
Member
gfs virtually unchanged on surface temps and maybe even a touch colder at 925mb. sleet bomb for ga/sc
Although that little kicker out of the NW is growing more prominent
Looks about the same as 18z??