Broken024
Member
All hail cheif meteorologist brick tamlin
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
if we lose the -NAO here we’re ------ 
Hopefully it rotates west and amplifies the Aleutian ridge. That would aid in putting everyone out of their misery a bit earlier than usual.
Not sure who on here gets Larry Cosgrove's weekly email but here is his viewpoint of the models since
Labor Day....
"But realize: the model guidance has been useless since Labor Day. The impressive southern branch and flow splitting has created a thermal projection that looks like a typical El Nino, instead of what La Nina climatology (which the equations are using heavily) would suggest. And with the steady -ENSO signal projected to weaken, some of the blocking elements shown on the February 500MB comparison chart will come into play. "
Really makes the forecaster's life difficult and impossible when a model flips from one solution to another in 12 hours
Labor Day....
"But realize: the model guidance has been useless since Labor Day. The impressive southern branch and flow splitting has created a thermal projection that looks like a typical El Nino, instead of what La Nina climatology (which the equations are using heavily) would suggest. And with the steady -ENSO signal projected to weaken, some of the blocking elements shown on the February 500MB comparison chart will come into play. "
Really makes the forecaster's life difficult and impossible when a model flips from one solution to another in 12 hours
Anybody seen the mjo? Phase 8-2 anytime soon? Or pretty much 3-7 forever?
The fat lady is winding up 
Birdmangloom 
whatalife
Moderator
LOL! In 24 hrs...We went from this to this...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
At least it's low amplitude. Not helping us, though.
I was just about to come in here and say that ... screw the -EPO and -WPO or whatever people were rooting for ... they have never been good for us recently and those marginal events were fine we weee so close we were bound to hit if it kept going into our best climo snow period .. smh
Mr. Golf
Member
Do you guys like MAYBE or MAYBENOT for thread title for March? Give me feedback
Tomorrow we get hurricane showing up on the models lmaoLOL! In 24 hrs...We went from this to this...
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Preliminary snow & sleet accumulation maps for yesterday's graupel & snow shower event in the Carolinas.
Lol wudge
Honestly wouldn’t be too discouraged by bad model runs when the models are flipping like crazy right now ... until we see multiple runs that look similar THATS when we kick the chair out from under us... also the GEFS still had a few members that liked that Jan 23 system could still be sneaky and give some snow to us as well as a lot more members keying in on a big CAD event .. so the possibilities are definitely still on the table we’re just not seeing them right now ?