Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[Myfrotho704_]

Those blocks tho

 

[KyloG]

Run-to-run change thru day 11 looks basically like today's 12z operational

View attachment 65015

It shocks you when you see the EPS change that much from run to run. It going to dump a ton of cold into the conus.

 

[Webberweather53]

It shocks you when you see the EPS change that much from run to run. It going to dump a ton of cold into the conus.

Yep. The SE ridge we see probably is transient too when you consider that giant -NAO sitting overhead

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Might become a -WPO here a few frames later

 

[Stormdoc]

Is this the result of models “seeing” the SSW effects on the troposphere Webb? It seems in my experience this often occurs quite suddenly

 

[Mitch West]

Seems like we are kinda entering a pattern where a Winter storm could pop up on models at a relatively short range out of nowhere.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Webberweather53]

Is this the result of models “seeing” the SSW effects on the troposphere Webb? It seems in my experience this often occurs quite suddenly

The SSW is already significantly effecting the troposphere, that block over Greenland has been coupled to the stratosphere for a while.

 

[GaStorm]

Correct me if I'm wrong but it seems that Greenland and Alaskan block will work in tandem to crank out some arctic air.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Webberweather53]

Fwiw, every winter storm (n = 13) since 1950 that has occurred in DJF in NC w/ a significant -AO/-NAO/-PNA/-EPO were either overrunning or Miller B/CAD events.

 

[KyloG]

Yep. The SE ridge we see probably is transient too when you consider that giant -NAO sitting overhead

Good grief...that looks interesting.

 

[Webberweather53]

Correct me if I'm wrong but it seems that Greenland and Alaskan block will work in tandem to crank out some arctic air.

Most of the truly arctic air is gonna be thanks to that big block over Alaska.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol looks like cross polar flow beginning to crank on the EPS in the LR

 

[Webberweather53]

Lol looks like cross polar flow beginning to crank on the EPS in the LR View attachment 65020

A transient SE ridge is a relatively small price to pay to inject some true arctic air into this pattern and keep the west-based -NAO cranking.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

lol wtf, summer like 585dm ridge near Alaska on the control

 

[Webberweather53]

EPS has that Jan 10-11 2011 look to it

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The EPS/control show that suppressed southeast ridge retrograde west towards the pacific..... I’ve never seen that sort of evolution tbh >>

 

[Webberweather53]

EPS has that Jan 10-11 2011 look to it

View attachment 65025


View attachment 65026

Jan 17-18 2000 is the other storm that keeps showing up consistently as an analog to this z500a. Probably the most epic clipper of all time lol

 

[Tarheel1]

88’ was a +

Fwiw, every winter storm (n = 13) since 1950 that has occurred in DJF in NC w/ a significant -AO/-NAO/-PNA/-EPO were either overrunning or Miller B/CAD events.

88 was a + NAO, overrunning event? I thought?