Pattern January 2017 Discussion

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SD link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4456#msg4456 date=1483043576]
I think the H5 look improved vs 00z . can't complain about that eps run

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I lost the member that gave me 2 feet toss it....where did you see the ice on the control I can't find said option

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[/quote]
just looking at it verbatim. but it's the control so ....
36a58af8e0e974e54032dd5adb7204dc.jpg


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well to be fair, i think that control run is the basis of the members and it was crazy. but we could be seeing an official backdown if things aren't better by 00z.
 
NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4442#msg4442 date=1483042431]
12z eps says stupid euro op
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I'd take her over the Euro lol!

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[/quote]

Hell I'd take her and say screw winter!
 
Thundersnow89 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=60.msg4451#msg4451 date=1483043348]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4442#msg4442 date=1483042431]
12z eps says stupid euro op
798bed08ea84b781ddff6d7646f80659.gif


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I'd take her over the Euro lol!

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[/quote]

Hell I'd take her and say screw winter!
[/quote]
amen to that

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Shawn link said:
well to be fair, i think that control run is the basis of the members and it was crazy. but we could be seeing an official backdown if things aren't better by 00z.
last night was a weenie run. we are not gonna see better than that at this lead .

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Alright, after looking over the 12z Euro, the energy is being kicked out too soon at hr 174-180 IMO. (That's the 2nd wave coming in over the Plains, it catches up with the first wave) More than deep enough cold air after the moisture is gone. If that energy waits till the 1st wave is gone we can hopefully get colder air in here before the 2nd wave comes in, if there will be a 2nd wave.

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accu35 link said:
So no map for the control?
Take a pink highlighter and draw an arc from  little Rock to DC....then take another marker and draw a frown over most of the SE

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not sure why the Control is getting so much love . get to day ten and look at the last four runs. it's shifted every possible direction .

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Re: January 2017 Discussion

Shawn link said:
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=60.msg4470#msg4470 date=1483044410]
So no map for the control?

not great through day 12 outside tn.
eps_snow_c_east_49.png

[/quote]
Some guy in that small patch of 0 in NW Missouri is having a huge meltdown

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I'll be glad when the window gets into the 120 hr...We would be able to put the UKMET to use.

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Storm5 link said:
not sure why the Control is getting so much love . get to day ten and look at the last four runs. it's shifted every possible direction .

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Agreed, the control can be fun to look at sometimes but basically it sucks.....  and the mean isn't too awful, we were spoiled with the weenie run last night. 
 
NorthGAWinterWx link said:
I'll be glad when the window gets into the 120 hr...We would be able to put the UKMET to use.

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might be too late by then

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After running thru each ensemble member, to see what changed cutting the mean totals down. There is still a couple cutters, but the big change for members with little or no wintry weather, is they suppress the system.

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