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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

happy to see a lot of the board catching a storm. we have had our ups and downs but objectively thats a lot of magenta and purple south of the mason dixon
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i haven't seen the latest obs but seems like somewhere along the south tennessee border is going to see some surprising storm totals. locals can let me know if i'm wrong but i have always thought this was an area that's tougher than you think to get snow, not as much maritime cyclogenesis (how many gulf lows have you actually seen), no CAD, and the blue norther anafront events usually fizzle out in the plains before they reach these guys. so, happy for this crowd.

for me, richmond, nws is going with 1-2. feels about right with higher than normal variance. most models have a pretty intense frontogenesis band developing either *on* us or just south of us and lifting northward throughout the day. there's an obvious scenario where we get blanked (fronto band develops just north and never dips south) but also a scenario (the gfs shows this) where the intense band never lifts out and we get 4-6. not an enviable forecast to deliver.
 
Yes, Lily Pond would be much different, I was talking about Atlanta and south, referring to the threat Dsaur mentioned.
It's building south toward Atl now, but I'm still stuck at 42. Though there is a 38 near by. Looks like the end of the earth might be I 20 again, lol. Maybe some patchy ip/zr at some point.
 
We’ve got 0.5” of snow on top of a 0.25” of ZR & IP… moderate rate coming down now
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Man, when that freezes down if you can find a hill where no one has driven much, that will be great sledding right there. Perfect.... frozen solid after any melt. That stuff at 15 degrees, a dream at 3am.
 
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