Love to see those continue but one consideration to keep in mind is that we are losing the wheelhouse for the global models. I would feel way better if the short range models were in agreement so we have to see what the next 24 hrs show on both sets. If they jump on the southern side as they get more into their ranges then we may have something.
Cold air is going to be an issue on the immediate Lee side of the apps. ENC with a shot if they can develop that coastal low.
The trend of more cold press/lower heights out ahead of the the initial band isn't helping with the trailing vort. Essentially leaves less room for any amplification.
Disagree; every south tick with that band of precip is ticking temps lower in the 850mb range too... Surface is sufficiently cold/dry on Monday with the airmass in place as well to support snow if we get enough precip to wetbulb.
?
in my experience the cold is almost always late when it’s coming from the west. At least just south of 85. The usual suspects on the north side of the upstate can do ok in marginal setupsBased on many years watching the weather here
In this setup with the initial band of precip we aren't waiting for cold air to come over the apps. The airmass in place is sufficiently cold.?
Yep. I’m expecting pain here ITP ATL
You are correct. It also did poorly with the January 3-4, 2018 coastal… even on the day of that one it never got moisture west of I-95 when the highway 1 corridor got 1-4”
Gfs/cmc/Euro all with 3-6 for Chattanooga area makes me happy!?
That is quite a trend over 24 hours. If that continued for another day areas down to Gainesville will be in play. Virtually zero chance here but thats close enough to drive to.
that’s pretty wild. Wonder if it will continue or if we sort of halt here
