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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

I’d actually be surprised if there **wasn’t** some sizable northward adjustments here, even as we approach the 0 hour.

Strong WSW-SW flow aloft over top an approaching Arctic air mass with a decent vort max rotating around the base of a SE Canada vortex supports at least a low to even moderate impact overrunning event. Biggest question is how much Arctic air gets out in front of this

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Webberweather53 said:
I’d actually be surprised if there **wasn’t** some sizable northward adjustments here, even as we approach the 0 hour.

Strong WSW-SW flow aloft over top an approaching Arctic air mass with a decent vort max rotating around the base of a SE Canada vortex supports at least a low to even moderate impact overrunning event. Biggest question is how much Arctic air gets out in front of this
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Thanks Webb. Do you have any thoughts on the placement of the initial finger of precip on Monday over MS-AL-GA-TN? Seems to be ticking south a bit on due to PV press.
 
Is there any good news for the Atlanta metro or are we completely out of this thing. I don’t see too many mentions of anything.
 
12z GEFS still showing a few hits Wednesday morning
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iGRXY said:
850’s are an issue because the trough is too progressive not allowing for any lift to generate precip and slowing it down to allow more colder air to get in place. If the trough goes neutral tilt it will slow allowing the cold air to filter in and precip to drive dynamic cooling. The temps aren’t the issue here because they will be colder just from the slowing of the trough and precip being driven. Everything is dependent on a neutral tilted trough further west
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Basically what I said to begin with

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Webberweather53 said:
I’d actually be surprised if there **wasn’t** some sizable northward adjustments here, even as we approach the 0 hour.

Strong WSW-SW flow aloft over top an approaching Arctic air mass with a decent vort max rotating around the base of a SE Canada vortex supports at least a low to even moderate impact overrunning event. Biggest question is how much Arctic air gets out in front of this

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View attachment 142017
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Not a storm until Webb is preaching about the underestimation of the northern extent of the precip shield :)

(I agree)
 
So the 0z euro doesn't show the coastal hit right? It prefers the hard cold squash press? Does dr. no hold serve at 12z.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Painfully this will not be my storm but this in the outlook for Northern MS and this is dang impressive. Current point an click calls for 3-7 inches of snow with these temps. This is going to be a fun storm for you folks.

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I think upstate North of I85 has a pretty decent shot at seeing some winter weather early next week "If" we can get cold enough. It probably won't amount to Much but there could be some flying around

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