Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

[RoddyPiper]

I-20 corridor in Alabama could be caught off guard if this thing shifts south at the last minute. What a close call..

Highly unlikely that every single model, including all of their Ensemble members are missing the snow that bad. If anything, maybe hwy 278 gets caught off guard in the eastern parts of AL

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC ticked north lol
View attachment 142000

Interesting considering it did the same thing as the GFS with the Montana TPV, it has been struggling far worse with it. looks like more western Atlantic ridge that cmc run

 

[ynot]

CMC ticked north lol
View attachment 142000

Cmc always has a north bias

 

[Carolina Sky]

Love to see it.

 

[Storm5]

Highly unlikely that every single model, including all of their Ensemble members are missing the snow that bad. If anything, maybe hwy 278 gets caught off guard in the eastern parts of AL

1-20 is gonna be freezing rain . If you want snow gotta go north

 

[JLL1973]

Looks like the sweet spot with this storm is the Mississippi and Alabama counties that border Tennessee

 

[ynot]

Globals have been struggling with this the last 2 days. Initializing to weak. Id say if it continues, it’s possible it continues to trend south, but the jumps overall probably slow down Quickly soon

I believe we hit the southern limit.. they will adjust north slightly

 

[BullCityWx]

Feels like the money for NC is in being far enough north and west for the original band yet east enough for the late band

 

[RoddyPiper]

1-20 is gonna be freezing rain . If you want snow gotta go north

100%

 

[Storm5]

Cmc ZR

 

[Webberweather53]

Setup-wise this still looks fine to me.

Overrunning type setups are always trickier to forecast than the models will lead you to believe.

I expect to see some decent last minute adjustments here.

 

[ynot]

Another one to watch end of week

 

[TheBatman]

Cmc ZR

Dang that is ugly. CMC is definitely bringing the moisture/precip.

 

[Rain Cold]

1-20 is gonna be freezing rain . If you want snow gotta go north

Check out the snow in the moderating thread when you have a sec

 

[Carolina Sky]

Feels like the money for NC is in being far enough north and west for the original band yet east enough for the late band

Like where you and I are.

 

[ColdCoreLow]

I-20 corridor in Alabama could be caught off guard if this thing shifts south at the last minute. What a close call..

Not really that close for snow… maybe some light pingers and a little ZR

 

[Stormlover]

Highly unlikely that every single model, including all of their Ensemble members are missing the snow that bad. If anything, maybe hwy 278 gets caught off guard in the eastern parts of AL

Sleet and freezing rain are very much a concern all the way into that area. just one model:

 

[Arcc]

Not really that close for snow… maybe some light pingers and a little ZR

Not quite, it all depends on what wave you are looking at. The only real threat with snow for the AL I20 corridor is hoping you get a greater expansion of precip with the second overrunning batch. Not something you want to bet on but definitely not impossible.

 

[Webberweather53]

I’ve seen so many overrunning events like this (Dec 2017, Jan 28-29 2014, Feb 11 2014, Feb 12-13 2010, etc.) trend north at the last minute, not really worried at all about model details, even at this range.

All that matters is the setup, and it can definitely support a last minute low-moderate impact snow/ice event late Tuesday into Wednesday, even in NC

 

[Parker]

We will be headed to Gatlinburg tomorrow thru Wednesday! Kids are excited and I’ve got to see some snow!