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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

Yet another classic case of melting-induced frontogenesis near the rain-snow line over southern TN today.

Advancing low-mid level warm advection is partially offset by melting snow aloft near the rain-snow line.

This causes the local temperature gradient to increase, enhancing local frontogenesis & ascent, leading to higher snowfall rates and larger dendrites near and just to the cold side of the rain-snow line.

I've always had a soft spot for overrunning events like this for this very reason. It's hard for models to sniff out subtle warm advection aloft like this. Furthermore, the aforementioned secondary latent heating (absorption) feedbacks associated with this warm advection lead to even greater increases in precipitation &/or snowfall rates, particularly in a narrow band close to the rain-snow line. It's a beautiful thing to watch unfold in real time.

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hashslingingslasher256 said:
Can’t remember my last ice storm here in Gadsden. Is there any way for this to fall as anything other than freezing rain? Worried about power outages. We are 100% electric
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It comes down to timing. How much of the moisture is left when it gets to freezing. From what the models are showing, there will be freezing rain and a mix. Now we wait to see how much.
 
GFS Wed morning
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Webberweather53 said:
Yet another classic case of melting-induced frontogenesis near the rain-snow line over southern TN today.

Advancing low-mid level warm advection is partially offset by melting snow aloft near the rain-snow line.

This causes the local temperature gradient to increase, enhancing local frontogenesis & ascent, leading to higher snowfall rates and larger dendrites near and just to the cold side of the rain-snow line.

I've always had a soft spot for overrunning events like this for this very reason. It's hard for models to sniff out subtle warm advection aloft like this. Furthermore, the aforementioned secondary latent heating (absorption) feedbacks associated with this warm advection lead to even greater increases in precipitation &/or snowfall rates, particularly in a narrow band close to the rain-snow line. It's a beautiful thing to watch unfold in real time.
Click to expand...
I drove up to the AL Tennessee border north of Huntsville about an hour ago. Some of the biggest flakes I’ve ever seen. Pancakes. Extremely high rates and then sleet started to mix back in and takeover even there. About 3 inches in the ground.

Those first few counties that stayed all snow up there have a legit shot at half a foot I imagine.
 
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