GSP's take on Friday.
The
upstream trough will sharpen up as it moves east into the MS
River Valley Thursday night, with a southern stream branch
likely
breaking off over western Tennessee. A focused period of strong
dynamics will
likely lift across the forecast area Friday afternoon
and evening. All models have a robust southerly
low level jet with
50+
kt of surface to 3 km bulk
shear. If the
NAM is correct (with
the much deeper/southern
cutoff low solution to the west), then
shear will be much greater across the region with strongly backed
950 to 850
mb flow. The models have also exhibited an uptick in
surface-based
instability, with a consensus of about 300+
J/kg
crossing the region Friday afternoon. Chance
thunder will be
advertised and high
shear/low
CAPE severe thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out. An HWO mention could be needed. Despite the abundant
clouds and showers, strong warm
advection should push maxes back
into the 60s in many areas. Significant hydro problems are not
expected, with some 2 to 2.5 inch storm totals in southeast upslope
areas mitigated by dry antecedent conditions.