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Severe January 12/13 severe threat

deltadog03 said:
I don't think so. Should be 0z run
Click to expand...

Pivotal weather is weird sometimes and you have to select the newest run to make it pop up. I notice that it says 18z on all the imagery for initialization time.
 
Problem is, there is just enough SB cape to possibly get something going with other ingredients in place if the NAM were correct.
 
Really hoped we could get a bigger event in regards to cape; but the most aggressive model, the NAM only gets 100-200 through here; which while the threat is not 0; argues against much outside some heavy downpours and winds as the squall pushes through.

Expecting a slight risk possibly at best, for mainly damaging winds from the SPC.

Too bad we couldn't reach at least 500 j/kg around here, because other factors are in place to have some fun. Lots of shear!
 
Shawn said:
Really hoped we could get a bigger event in regards to cape; but the most aggressive model, the NAM only gets 100-200 through here; which while the threat is not 0; argues against much outside some heavy downpours and winds as the squall pushes through.

Expecting a slight risk possibly at best, for mainly damaging winds from the SPC.

Too bad we couldn't reach at least 500 j/kg around here, because other factors are in place to have some fun. Lots of shear!
Click to expand...
3k nam has pockets of 400-500sb cape which would be more than sufficient in such a highly sheared environment.

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A bit of a concern that I have has been forecast yesterday and today busted as to high temps by almost 10 degrees. My thinking is that models may be swayed by recent cold and are under proging the temps.
 
Very Strong wording from FFC in AFD.. Especially with SPC Outlooks make little mention of this.
By Friday morning /12z/...cold front should be located across
central or eastern AL...with associated precip oriented along it.
Very well could see scattered showers develop out ahead of the main
line across western Georgia beginning a few hrs before sunrise.
Right now...expecting the line of precip to push into western Ga
counties by 15z. Given abnormally strong lift...favorable jet
region aloft...relatively high water vapor mixing ratios...the
chance for thunderstorms will increase. Given these
parameters...enough shear exists for storm organization. Severe
chances for tomorrow will be dependent on instability: thick
stratus/fog/drizzle could pose a problem for instability...as well
as pre-frontal showers. But this is also a good chance that such
strong system dynamics may be able to overcome these issues. If we
do see instability of at least several hundred J/kg...severe risk
will be high...and include threats of damaging wind gusts/brief
tornadoes/heavy rainfall. The system will progress from west to east
through the day Friday and with potential peaks of sunshine across
eastern and especially southeast Georgia...beginning to think
greatest risk of severe weather will exist across this area in the
afternoon. Although lower level helicity values decrease by this
time /0-1 helicity <100m^2/s^2/...could still see a threat for brief
tornadoes but looking more specifically at a wind threat by then.
 
12KM NAM has over 600 (close to 700) j/kg here now. Interesting, ahead of the line.
 
I don’t know how accurate this radar scope image is but that looks pretty intense over Alabama. D5947AD9-D8C7-4E46-8179-08CF0444BE1C.png
 
How did that band end up doing in Alabama?
 
Interesting
9c36364080a10ee6bb3c1d6122a65db3.jpg


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If we had a little more instability this line would be rocking. Some of the velocity signatures are sketchy

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