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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC
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️ Also sponsored by Lesco preemergent, Cub Cadet, Kingsford charcoal, and the myrtle beach chamber of commerce.
SASQUATCH
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griteater
Member
I’m getting concerned with these thread titles. Dud for December and now A/C for January
If the GEFS Ext is correct, we party like it’s 1999. If the CFS and Euro Weeklies are correct, it’s over soon after it starts
If the GEFS Ext is correct, we party like it’s 1999. If the CFS and Euro Weeklies are correct, it’s over soon after it starts
Weber Grill
Chealybates Country Club
I'm concerned with the trop PV consolidated where it's being modeled to start January. That doesn't usually fix itself quickly and with how terrible nina Feb's have been we don't have time to waste.
It did snow in part of NC a week or so ago that hopefully brings some good mojo for mid-January. It's been almost 3 years since I've seen a sleet pellet...and the thought of going 4 years really sucks.
Isn’t COD the 3rd best for snow in neutral years in Webb’s composite though ? I’d imagine if the MJO lost influence, the IP warm pool would gain influence again like it did during early December, which favored -EPO and a more extended-equatorward pacific jet. Only issue is wavelengths start to shorten in late jan
Twister
Member
griteater
Member
Yeah I'm perfectly fine with COD on the left hand side. Problem is, the CFS and Euro Wk want to bring the signal back around and into the E Indian Ocean (Phase 3) as fast as mid-Jan. The GEFS Ext is way different - much slower, much better.
griteater
Member
The last 3 MJO passes thru Phases 7-8-1-2 lasted roughly 21 days in Jul-Aug, 17 days in Sep-Oct, and 24 days in Oct-Nov. Average that out to 21 days and that gives us a ballpark for what to expect
If it blows through them this time it will be past time for someone with knowledge to really dig into what's causing the MJO to spend very little time on the left in winter. If someone can figure out why you may have found why winter won't winter on the east coast anymore outside of a brief period here and there. Would SST's be a good place to start to place the blame?
0z EPS mean teleconnections check at 360:
Neutral to slightly negative AO
Negative EPO
Negative NAO
Positive PNA
Ready for liftoff.
Neutral to slightly negative AO
Negative EPO
Negative NAO
Positive PNA
Ready for liftoff.
this thread title is like all of fishel's linkedin/facebook endorsements lol
Every morning going to work I get to hear that he's Blanton heating and air's "O'Fishel" weather expert.
SnowNiner
Member
Just looking at it, the question becomes does it even make it through? Like grit said, the euro, which seems to have the best mjo track record, takes its usual u-turn juuuuust when we need it to keep going. So tired of seeing that tease. But, I'm open to whatever, we'll see what post holidays looks like and go from there.
I agree I wish we could figure out what the culprit is that keeps the pacific so obstinate for us for these last few years, so we could observe it and at least understand what to look out to potentially change. Also agree it's the SST's but curious what part of the ocean it is.
I do remember that Webb said the other day that the overall set up we are in right now, that the GEFS is doing better with the MJO progression.
Problem is if we’re headed to a strong 7-8-1 transition, the pacific jet would Likely be a problem and the western ridge would likely be shunted east, especially if it was a El Niño. while it might not show up well on RMM maps, there still is a shell of a MJO wave traversing into the pac/whem in early jan. Imo the most likely outcome here is torch till early week 1 of jan, cutters and the return of cold back into CONUS and the US week 1 in general, then week 2 we start setting up the baroclinic zone south. and week 3 the trough axis starts shifting west, and there’s another shot right there as it starts to shift west.
rburrel2
Member
They can't even get a few days in advance right, I wouldn't sweat the January mjo forecasts yet. Just look at the variance in that chart.
It sucks we already have to punt the whole month of December, but the start of January is looking pretty good if you ask me.
It's the end of the run and there's really not much point in discussing it, but this isn't really all that bad here.
