Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

[TheWeatherDriver]

I wouldn’t say that’s a very bold forecast especially since you are relying entirely on heavy or very heavy precip to make any snow work from wake county east. Just can’t forecast that with any confidence until it’s nearly happening.

I would’ve pushed the mix line a little bit because of that uncertainty. I don’t even think we can put a “cold rain” margin that big rn

 

[KyloG]

It will probably be all cold rain for central NC…but it’s still nice to look at modeling showing hope.

Past few HRRR trend

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

That band in north georgia looks rather impressive. That may be a snow band in the future for the mountains, hopefully it's at least a decent sign that the precip shield is further northwest than expected.

 

[rburrel2]

It’s very hard to get snow to the ground when wetbulb 925s are above freezing, and they are for the Raleigh area when precip moves in. Doesn’t mean there won’t be a change over at some point towards the end though. They’re getting a lot of precip.

 

[Tsappfrog20]

Let’s see if this can happen.




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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I’m officially down to a bone chilling 48 degrees. Good luck everybody else

 

[Ksnow33]

You can see the meso low clearly on the 00Z HRRR

 

[Webberweather53]

Better than nothing

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

Rather solid 700mb FGEN showing up on meso anylasis in North georgia. Just need to keep this going and keep the bulb more moist.

 

[Tsappfrog20]

Latest HRrr

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[deltadog03]

wow, HRRR......that would be the heaviest snow seen in mid GA in prob 10+ years I would think.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

FYI, HH have finished their data ingest missions for the 00z runs tonight


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[TheWeatherDriver]

I like that final push that’s being shown on the models now. It gives me hope in Wake and Johnston County

 

[chase223322]

That band in north georgia looks rather impressive. That may be a snow band in the future for the mountains, hopefully it's at least a decent sign that the precip shield is further northwest than expected.

Do we really think our area has a legitimate chance? Seems like its not going to trend NW unfortunately. Im in Clarkesville

 

[Webberweather53]

This whole storm feels like a missed opportunity in NC, even if we get some snow to mix in.

If the arctic front was faster most of central nc would have gotten crushed

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Jackson County Florida. Snow capital of the south

 

[SnowmasterATL]

This whole storm feels like a missed opportunity in NC, even if we get some snow to mix in.

If the arctic front was faster most of central nc would have gotten crushed

where is the arctic front?

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Spitting sprinkles in Smyrna

 

[TheWeatherDriver]

This whole storm feels like a missed opportunity in NC, even if we get some snow to mix in.

If the arctic front was faster most of central nc would have gotten crushed

Fr I was looking at the potential we had last week and was like “no way we fumble this” then we did

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

51° at 8:45 pm.

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

This whole storm feels like a missed opportunity in NC, even if we get some snow to mix in.

If the arctic front was faster most of central nc would have gotten crushed

Feels that way here too, except we've got the opposite problem. Although we are seeing saturation and FGEN rather faster than expected. Something to keep an eye on.

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[El Kabong]

wow, HRRR......that would be the heaviest snow seen in mid GA in prob 10+ years I would think.

Actually, last January's snow totals were equal or higher from Houston County south. Cordele reported 9 inches!

 

[Engeo]

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[deltadog03]

Actually, last January's snow totals were equal or higher from Houston County south. Cordele reported 9 inches!
View attachment 184809

good point!!

 

[tractor girl]

Currently 48F in my backyard with soil temp of 50F

 

[Bigedd09]

NAM run looks colder this run

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[packfan98]

Somebody wake Mitch up!

 

[HailCore]

Sheesh... Aside from obvious dry air issues with the HRW-FV3, there is a 4-5 hour period of snow in ATL. Man how I wish there wasn't such a dry column during this time period

 

[FortMillSCWx]

Side note while the NAM is running, but huh? Anyone confirm?

 

[jackendrickwx]

Side note while the NAM is running, but huh? Anyone confirm?

This guy lives next to roan mountain at like 3800’ in western Avery county

 

[Bigedd09]

Interesting the NAM has been shifting everything a touch southeast the last 2 runs


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[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Side note while the NAM is running, but huh? Anyone confirm?

Check the time stamp.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Somebody wake Mitch up!
View attachment 184812

And the run is not finished, that’s through 1pm


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[jackendrickwx]

Maybe I will just read a book tomorrow

 

[packfan98]

And the run is not finished, that’s through 1pm


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Yep. Heck of a run for large are. Now to check out the 3k

 

[Tsappfrog20]

Side note while the NAM is running, but huh? Anyone confirm?

Was last night


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[GaWx]

Sheesh... Aside from obvious dry air issues with the HRW-FV3, there is a 4-5 hour period of snow in ATL. Man how I wish there wasn't such a dry column during this time period
View attachment 184813

Say what? How good or bad is the HRW-FV3? KFFC has absolutely no mention of snow in their forecast north of Henry county. Thus, I haven’t mentioned anything to my ATL sis.