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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

So is it better to be on the SE side or the NW side? because from what I’m understanding it’s better to be on the NW side


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SegTindo said:
So is it better to be on the SE side or the NW side? because from what I’m understanding it’s better to be on the NW side


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You would need to be on the NW side on this one for your location. I need the same NW side to be better also. Making big gains tonight with NW trend.
 
Winter weather advisory issued for southern Georgia and Alabama

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO
NOON EST /11 AM CST/ SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Light snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to one
inch.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Alabama and south central and
southwest Georgia.

* WHEN...From 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ to noon EST /11 AM CST/ Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Where light accumulations occur on Sunday
morning, it will be mainly on grassy surfaces. Little to no
accumulation is expected on roadways. Sunday afternoon
temperatures will reach the 40s, so any accumulations will have
the opportunity to melt away.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be
obtained by calling 5 1 1.
 
🤔 🤔 🤔

Weren't expecting much of anything here. In fact all the talk has pretty much turned to the long range

1:10 AM - Light snow continues to move across Stillwater and vicinity this morning. Reduced visibilities are possible with this activity. Little to no accumulation is expected as this moves southward.
 
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Brent said:
Where is this
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Bryson city NC. Forecast called for elevations 3500+ to get mainly snow with very minor accumulation below that but this has been snow from the jump. We are sitting at 31/27 and by the looks of the radar have at least 2 hours of light snow to go. Just really glad our spur of the moment plan worked out. Was concerned about frontal moisture being sufficient but it certainly has. Not gonna be big snow but we may have 1” by 6 am.


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CLOTT01 said:
Bryson city NC. Forecast called for elevations 3500+ to get mainly snow with very minor accumulation below that but this has been snow from the jump. We are sitting at 31/27 and by the looks of the radar have at least 2 hours of light snow to go. Just really glad our spur of the moment plan worked out. Was concerned about frontal moisture being sufficient but it certainly has. Not gonna be big snow but we may have 1” by 6 am.


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Yeah this is reminding me a bit of the Gulf storm last year... It wasn't ours but somehow we got a dusting out of nowhere haha
 
Looks like the 06z NAM is coming in with precip further N/W, as expected based on the 03z SREF. Whether it's rain or snow, is the question. Looks like this could be a good run for C / N GA, upstate SC, and the NC foothills / Western Piedmont?
 
NWS GSP discussion

Key message 2: A low pressure system moves into the area tonight
and Sunday with a chance of rain or snow, mainly outside of the
North Carolina mountains. Guidance continues to trend toward
minimal impacts.

The aforementioned longwave trough will sharpen through today
into tonight as a strong shortwave extends across the Mid/Lower-MS
Valley tonight and a baroclinic zone shifts offshore the Southeast
Coast on the leeside of the trough, while the frontal boundary from
earlier in the day stalls along the coastline, helping to induce
weak surface cyclogenesis via weak coastal low. Deeper moisture
transport will accompany the system to go along with stronger
frontogenesis, allowing for an axis of precip to develop. At
the same time, colder air from a secondary boundary will move
in from the northwest overnight tonight in association with the
trough axis. The mountains will slow down the colder air moving
into the area as the precip develops, likely leading to just a
cold rain at the onset of the precip around midnight or shortly
after in the Piedmont zones. However, evaporational cooling
should help temperatures to drop during the night and likely
a window of opportunity for the cold air to get into the area
just in time for a transition over the snow, especially along
and northwest of I-85 through daybreak Sunday and even taking on
this transition a little further south and east of I-85 shortly
after daybreak. Ground temperatures will be above freezing and QPF
will be relatively light, so only little to no snow accumulations
are expected. However, some of the CAMs, in particular the NAM
indicates a narrow deformation band developing where the axis of
heaviest precip occurs. In this case, a surprise half inch to an
inch plus can`t be totally ruled out, but good luck pinpointing
where that likely develops over the Piedmont areas across the
Upstate and North Carolina, with guidance struggling to find a good
consensus. Model guidance are taking on its usual northwest trend
as we get closer to the event and tried to apply that to the latest
forecast. Areas along I-85 and vicinity currently seem like the best
locations for a longer period of snow and thus, highest chance for
light snow accumulations Sunday morning. This is highly subject to
change despite being 24-36 hours from the event. With confidence
remaining low on the overall setup and snow accumulations below
Advisory criteria in the current forecast, decided to just keep a
HWO mention for the time being and will need to further investigate
the trends throughout today to determine whether or not an Advisory
is needed for portions of the CWFA. Any snow accumulations will
likely melt by the afternoon anyways as afternoon highs reach into
the upper 30s to lower 40s across the Piedmont zones with clearing
skies late in the afternoon, while the Arctic air arrives across
the mountains with widespread 20s and lower 30s expected.


NWS Columbia

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1249 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Higher resolution guidance highlights the potential for a brief
snow band to set up over portion of the area Sunday morning
into early afternoon. High end amounts continue to be below
winter weather advisory criteria, however and much of the area
likely will receive little to no snow accumulation.

KEY MESSAGES...
1) A rain/snow mix is possible Sunday, but the potential for
significant accumulation is low. Patchy black ice possible
early Monday morning.

DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: A rain/snow mix is possible Sunday, but the potential
for significant accumulation is low. Patchy black ice possible
Sunday night.

The overall synoptic pattern for the system Saturday night into
Sunday remains the same with a deepening 500mb trough into the
Missippi Valley leading to cyclogenesis along the northern Gulf
coast. Surface low pressure will move along the coast of GA/SC in
what is a typically favorable setup for winter weather in our area.
The issue we will run into is high confidence in temperatures in the
40s Saturday night and while a colder air mass will begin to push in
and overrunning will lead to rain developing, allowing for
evaporative cooling, climatologically it is difficult to get any
kind of meaningful snow accumulation when the cold air is not
already in place. Rain will likely transition to a rain/snow
mix Sunday morning but light snow will struggle to accumulate
with temperatures likely near freezing and ground temperatures
likely above freezing.

HiRes models do still indicate the potential for mesoscale banding
associated with warm advection and a strengthening band of
frontogenesis leading to sufficient lift in the dendritic growth
zone. This would lead to some higher snow rates which would likely
be able to overcome marginal surface temps leading to some
accumulating snow at the surface. Higher end amounts continue to
remain around a half inch and much of the area would likely receive
less than this (or no accumulation at all). With high confidence
that total snowfall remains less than an inch, we will not be
issuing a Winter Weather Advisory with this package. There may be
some minor impacts for a brief period, likely late morning into
early afternoon, if and where this band sets up but overall,
widespread impactful winter weather is not expected over the
forecast area.

Precipitation expected to push east of the area late Sunday
afternoon with a colder air mass pushing into the forecast area as
high pressure settles over the Deep South. Blended guidance shows
about a quarter to a half inch of total liquid precipitation with
this system and as temperatures drop below freezing Sunday night,
there will be potential for black ice to develop on roads. This will
likely not be a widespread issue as a lingering pressure gradient
will lead to breezy winds into Sunday night which will help to dry
out roads, but patchy black ice is possible.
 
rburrel2 said:
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Jan 2025 Gulf Coast storm 2.0. Just like that storm, I slowly watched the green contour(.1 QPF) slowly advance northwest over my backyard. Ended up with about 1.3-1.5 inches of snow after being modeled to get nothing the day before. Kind of wild to see the same thing may be playing out. I'm just miles away from at least .1 QPF contour now.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Jan 2025 Gulf Coast storm 2.0. Just like that storm, I slowly watched the green contour(.1 QPF) slowly advance northwest over my backyard. Ended up with about 1.3-1.5 inches of snow after being modeled to get nothing the day before. Kind of wild to see the same thing may be playing out. I'm just miles away from at least .1 QPF contour now.
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Awesome brother. Good luck 👍
 
“The mountains will slow down the colder air moving
into the area as the precip develops, likely leading to just a
cold rain at the onset of the precip around midnight or shortly
after in the Piedmont zones. However, evaporational cooling
should help temperatures to drop during the night and likely
a window of opportunity for the cold air to get into the area
just in time for a transition over the snow, especially along
and northwest of I-85 through daybreak Sunday and even taking on
this transition a little further south and east of I-85 shortly
after daybreak. Ground temperatures will be above freezing and QPF
will be relatively light, so only little to no snow accumulations
are expected. However, some of the CAMs, in particular the NAM
indicates a narrow deformation band developing where the axis of
heaviest precip occurs. In this case, a surprise half inch to an
inch plus can`t be totally ruled out”

GSP says someone’s about to cook here 👀
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
“The mountains will slow down the colder air moving
into the area as the precip develops, likely leading to just a
cold rain at the onset of the precip around midnight or shortly
after in the Piedmont zones. However, evaporational cooling
should help temperatures to drop during the night and likely
a window of opportunity for the cold air to get into the area
just in time for a transition over the snow, especially along
and northwest of I-85 through daybreak Sunday and even taking on
this transition a little further south and east of I-85 shortly
after daybreak. Ground temperatures will be above freezing and QPF
will be relatively light, so only little to no snow accumulations
are expected. However, some of the CAMs, in particular the NAM
indicates a narrow deformation band developing where the axis of
heaviest precip occurs. In this case, a surprise half inch to an
inch plus can`t be totally ruled out”

GSP says someone’s about to cook here 👀
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Looking good down your way right now Jimmy. Hopefully totals go up as the day goes on. We all deserve it around these parts.
 
It’s crazy how many times we’ve seen a promising storm have the NW trend and the mid-Atlantic and northeast crew go from not being even close to scoring to a significant storm. Do you remember this one being depicted as going way out to sea off the NC coast? Now look at the footprint…
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