I wish I'd say baby steps but this needs to get a roll on if we want better snow. It had less cold air overall on that one.
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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
I wish I'd say baby steps but this needs to get a roll on if we want better snow. It had less cold air overall on that one.
Wow. No snow at all 
Ouch.
Nasty trend from the Good For Shoot model 
GFS's tilt was more positive this run. 
Cooking H9->sfc going to have to band it up and erode that to get snow if you live south of the nc/va border
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Not great looks. Absolutely need a NW trend on something.. If not Euro GEFS.
Looks like Weathernext2 I believe. Wow
AIGFS also trending SE
ceiling got lowered yesterday
thought it had a chance to reverse with improvements upstream but alas in the end nothing really mattered. makes you think about life.
you crushed this, call last night sticking to the ai's was babe ruth pointing to the stands. we seem to always claw our way back to something somehow so i don't think it's over but this is a bummer. my dream to watch playoff football in my buddy's backyard with snowfall is somehow still alive
There's that delayed CAA that Eric has been warning about for the Carolinas.
Georgia would have been fine with a neutral tilt soon enough.
Georgia would have been fine with a neutral tilt soon enough.
Need a neutral tilt.. but I'm accepting our fate.
WTH?
Despite initial looks being better, it tilts worse in the CMC run.
The really frustrating thing is, we have a ton of cold air around this year. It would be different if all of the cold was over in Russia. But it's not. But the only thing we can get for weeks on end are low IQ clippers or shortwaves that do EVERY SINGLE THING they can to end up with the worst possible outcome. I mean, not even something down the middle of the road or something quasi-mediocre, but just the worst possible outcome.
This one will go into the hall of almost along with a number of others since 2019
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
There's a reality here. This is the chances. If Alabama, Mississippi and North Georgia miss. Everyone probably misses. CAA isn't trending in the right direction for the Carolinas despite the system trending less amped. The reality is in an underamped scenerio, nobody wins we all lose.
What if I showed you this banger a week ago and told you it could snow. What would you have said?
Bigedd09
Member
GEFS is a little further west with precip not that the GEFS really matters at this point
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Need different letters up north
trackersacker
Member
Man I just remembered that the model that led the way on the west trend in getting snow into East Tennessee first with the December 2017 storm was the Canadian.
I remember this because I took heat from Dave Tolleris because I said it performed better than any model and yet even tho he argued with me that model was the first to come way west.
I remember this because I took heat from Dave Tolleris because I said it performed better than any model and yet even tho he argued with me that model was the first to come way west.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
GEFS a tad NW. We're done with major NW ticks, that's just not going to happen anymore. However, we gotta keep simple small 20-30 mile NW ticks each run. These may not sound like much but overtime they add up. Will it happen? No clue, but its something to monitor closely.
HailCore
Member
Latest RAP model composite reflectivity is a bit more exciting than its precipitation map. Virga with a northeasterly component trying to push north of the main precip shield, and at least this time the dew point depressions over the area will not be nearly as extreme as 1/21/25 when 12+ hours of light snow aloft was completely eaten by dry air for many on the northern fringes. However its unlikely that would reach the ground on its own without heavier returns/development/neutral/negative tilt based on this run. Also there is some wet snow in southern LA
accu35
Member
That Rap run was about to go boom in southern Louisiana.
While I think this is a long shot given this isn’t traditional at all (no true cold source + WAA setup) ... I think the primary key is the shortwave digging into the Dakotas as our trough attempts its best to dig and tilt as much as it can. The farther south and stronger this piece is, the quicker our trough is forced east… ultimately less digging and an even more positively tilted look.
The “good” runs that show a better snow footprint have this feature along or north of the US/Canada border. The latest “meh” runs have it much farther south, putting more pressure on the backside of the trough and kicking it out.
Really a thread-the-needle situation. I find some solace in the fact that these Canadian energy pieces often move around quite a bit, even within the 60-72 hour window, so I think there’s still room for movement (I wouldn’t get my hopes up)… but alas, we track!
This also doesn’t solve the lack of cold air. Even with a perfect dig, still need the perfect balance of precip-driven cooling in marginal temperatures (even worse during daylight hours if you’re in the Carolinas), without so much amplification that you introduce an excessive amount of WAA.
**Attached GIF is of old runs that had better snowfall footprints
The “good” runs that show a better snow footprint have this feature along or north of the US/Canada border. The latest “meh” runs have it much farther south, putting more pressure on the backside of the trough and kicking it out.
Really a thread-the-needle situation. I find some solace in the fact that these Canadian energy pieces often move around quite a bit, even within the 60-72 hour window, so I think there’s still room for movement (I wouldn’t get my hopes up)… but alas, we track!
This also doesn’t solve the lack of cold air. Even with a perfect dig, still need the perfect balance of precip-driven cooling in marginal temperatures (even worse during daylight hours if you’re in the Carolinas), without so much amplification that you introduce an excessive amount of WAA.
**Attached GIF is of old runs that had better snowfall footprints
Attachments
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Where I'm at the cold air is actually pretty well placed, but we can't get any runs with moisture.. Praying a NW trend starts occuring here.
Has this disturbance even been sampled yet??
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Yes, there was a recon mission in the Atlantic and the pacific.
I’ve decided for myself in the Atlanta area that I’ll give this until 0z tomorrow night to start turning around. Today was a buzzkill for sure but I’m not jumping yet. With that said, I think the ceiling has lowered quite a bit.
Hope we can reverse the momentum here soon
Hope we can reverse the momentum here soon
00z AIFS remains consistent with only slight wobbles.
Little more east coast ridging on the Euro so far 
Still way more NW than 36 hours ago
Is that good or bad?
NBAcentel
Member
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Euro with a NW tick on QPF.