accu35
Member
take a blend of the gfs and euro and we have a nice southern snow storm and the board would be thrilled.
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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
I think the UK Ens are going to hit different with more north precipitation expansion.
a lot of wishcasting into a rainstorm here tonight; great job guys
LongRanger
Member
Snow shovel north of 85, Umbrella South of 85
Until the atmosphere is sampled, I am not counting on any one specific model run/suite. Things can/will fluctuate to an extent, until we get more concrete data.
Wouldn't that legitimately just shut down the entire Atlanta metro for at least a day before a warmup would melt some of the accum?
Footnote, if it doesn't melt all of it, then it's going to stay for 4 days due to a cold spell lol
It is correct to assume it will be sampled by tomorrow or early Friday?
You should start get sampling beginning tomorrow.
tomorrow evening!!!
I believe once it gets within 72 hours it gets real live data.
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Y’all better hope Euro is still a miss. We had a cape hatteras jackpot the other day and now they’re kissing the ridge
accu35
Member
Chris Justuce just mentioned in his recent video that if models shows this tomorrow then its pretty much locked in.
1. i was going to say something cheeky about richmond but we may have mixing issues. tbd.
2. on better tilt, because i mention it a lot. what we have now works, and after last year we saw it plenty; a skinny corridor of moderate/heavy snow north of cold rain that tops the jackpot county off at 7 inches. fine enough. but it puts a cap on what we can achieve. it keeps us from seeing any foot+ lollipops on the clown maps. it's greedy but i always want to maximize what our chances give us
3.
4. i agree with webb that temps will be an issue and rate dependent. this is the kind of storm where somebody busts because of bad banding luck.
5. last year we endured a few pain cycles 2-3 days away from precip onset. i distinctly remember some globals blanking me (the euro, actually) with 72 hours on storms i received warning criteria snow from. keep that in mind if the 12z is drier.
6. say what you want about the gfs but it currently has solid consistency and a natural storm track and evolution that just makes sense.
2. on better tilt, because i mention it a lot. what we have now works, and after last year we saw it plenty; a skinny corridor of moderate/heavy snow north of cold rain that tops the jackpot county off at 7 inches. fine enough. but it puts a cap on what we can achieve. it keeps us from seeing any foot+ lollipops on the clown maps. it's greedy but i always want to maximize what our chances give us
3.
brother you saw a larger snow last year in little washington than i have in my 4 years in richmond
4. i agree with webb that temps will be an issue and rate dependent. this is the kind of storm where somebody busts because of bad banding luck.
5. last year we endured a few pain cycles 2-3 days away from precip onset. i distinctly remember some globals blanking me (the euro, actually) with 72 hours on storms i received warning criteria snow from. keep that in mind if the 12z is drier.
6. say what you want about the gfs but it currently has solid consistency and a natural storm track and evolution that just makes sense.
accu35
Member
Anyone have the blend model available?
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Pretty significant changes just through hour 24 on Euro
NBM isn't inclusive of the 00z GFS so it actually downticked. Basically just the same but shifted west and like remove 0.2" everywhere.
My 87 year old ex truck driver grandpa-in-law said the old rule of thumb for south of 85 in the Upstate is the snow had to come through the heart of Atlanta. That’s when they knew to get off the road
We're just enriching the battle between AI and Physics with this one, aren't we?
bncho
Member
The Euro AI has been absolutely deadly inside of 100 hours. If it doesn't show anything that's a big red flag.
accu35
Member
Is it me or is the Euro trended little more west?
I see little change from 18Z through 42 hours.
Speaking of AI models, I mean look at these 500mb vorticity maps. Where’s the depth? I mean you can’t even extrapolate off of these. Even if they’re right, this is a trash product
bncho
Member
Euro is a carbon copy of 18z.
Better but marginally.
There's also a present 700mb dry slot inside of MS lol
It appears that way for the 00z suite unless the EPS ticks the amperage up 2x.
This operational run of the Euro is the worst run by far in regards to totals it appears for today.
(This is snow depth but only product that sees snow for the time being).
I don't think Atlanta will receive measurable snowfall from this event, FWIW. Best chance for snowfall will be in the Carolinas.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
It’s Thursday and this thing starts cranking on Saturday. How in the world are these models so far apart
Here's the last 5 runs of the Euro centered on Friday morning. No end in sight to the west trending. We might be trending west up until game time.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
I'm personally a little skeptical about the way euro is handling all the phasing. Something about those 500mb vort maps just doesn't quite add up.
Everyone wants this NW trend to continue, we've just run out of time for any further substantial NW trend IMO. Especially after seeing the 00z AIFS/IFS outputs.
If we in Atlanta were seeing these model outputs at 144hrs, I'd be excited. Unfortunately, we're about 84hrs out from the 'event'. And models have gotten better over the last 5 years.
If we in Atlanta were seeing these model outputs at 144hrs, I'd be excited. Unfortunately, we're about 84hrs out from the 'event'. And models have gotten better over the last 5 years.
I think it definitely is catering to the GFS here in the short term, but after that it goes back to the standard it's been showing.
So, who knows at this point. Oof.
accu35
Member
It’s trending west but no results? Maybe EPS will not support its OP
Ikr normally u would think by now we would be close to or at a solution to this point. This might be something that doesn't get determined until we are under 24-48 hrs from the start
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From the glass-is-half-full perspective, the EURO run alleviates any concerns regarding an NW trend that would sideline the ATL area.
Night all.
Night all.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Generally its quite the opposite, you want those trends within this timeframe. NW tick often happens. FFC NWS mentions that this will not be really figured out possibly until 24-48 hours till.
Not sure I recall this big of a disagreement by the gfs and its ensembles vs other modeling this close to game time. But I never can fully trust the gfs. But even its AI version is much more amped than euro models. This is not settled and I’m not fully discounting the gfs right now.
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