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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

Stormdoc said:
This is turning into a negative tilted Miller A, not overrunning at all. Low starts bombing off the coast.
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So anyway this thing start developing earlier since it is a Miller A and getting more people on the western section in the game? (North/Cental Mississippi and Alabama)
 
HailCore said:
What do you think is a reasonable worst-case scenario for where the rain/snow line could end up if everything kept trending west up until the event as seen in past events?
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Great question. But I honestly don’t know enough about it to even try to pinpoint a specific “worst case”. I’m speaking more in generalities based on past storm model trends. Does anyone really know where the reality of this storm track is?
 
TheBatman said:
So anyway this thing start developing earlier since it is a Miller A and getting more people on the western section in the game? (North/Cental Mississippi and Alabama)
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I think it depends on the trough axis and where it pivots. More people are definitely in this to the west. I’m hoping here further east the base of the trough will still swing though hard enough to give us a good snowy finish, even if the storm starts further west.
 
Just some things to keep in mind, the GFS is showing what could happen with the right dig but beware of the maps. It's the GFS and has been by itself for the most part. Even if does happen, remember that cold is always a concern here... always. Also, for the upstate in particular, it portrays the snow coming through during the daytime rather than the evening or night.
 
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wow said:
The orientation may be more n-s are the trough sharpens but it's not going to slow down and bomb out as there is still not enough separation and the next wave kicks it out to sea.
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OK, but how is this storm as depicted on the GFS overrunning? Looks nothing like that. The low drops sub 1000 past Hatteras, so like any nor’easter the rain snow line will be determined by the surface low path.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Just some things to keep in mind, the GFS is showing what could happen with the right dig but beware of the maps. It's the GFS and has been by itself for the most part. Even if does happen, remember that cold is always a concern here... always. Also, for the upstate in particular, it portrays the snow coming through during the daytime rather than the evening or night.
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The GFS has SOME credibility here just because the Synoptics supports more precip. The precip comes through early to mid morning for the upstate so it’s not as significant of an issue. Also odds are this speeds up some with the WAA being the driver
 
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