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Pattern Jammin' January

Brick Tamland said:
So, are we in the better pattern for more winter storm chances yet, and somehow missing the storms, or have we not gotten into that pattern that was supposed to be so good yet?
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I think the models tease us with a good pattern. Only to reset and make it appear good 7-10 days out only to never come. This is probably banter but I feel like it’s a serious truthful trend this year for the models.


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Brick Tamland said:
So, are we in the better pattern for more winter storm chances yet, and somehow missing the storms, or have we not gotten into that pattern that was supposed to be so good yet?
Click to expand...
The pattern changed to colder as expected. I'm not sure anyone would have seen the Pacific retrograding and the pv contracting/ moving to NW canada in feb. Chances are we see the pac retrograde enough that we see an aleutian low west coast ridge and eastern trough by mid feb. It wouldn't be shocking if we got some flakes between now and 2/1 but I'm not holding my breath

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It’s fun to kid around in the complaint thread some, but I’m not really sold on the fact that the cold pattern breaks down for more than a handful of days, if that. I’d feel better about it if we could get some sustained blocking to show up like what should happen. But I’m not seeing any evidence of a solid -NAO yet.
 
Rain Cold said:
It’s fun to kid around in the complaint thread some, but I’m not really sold on the fact that the cold pattern breaks down for more than a handful of days, if that. I’d feel better about it if we could get some sustained blocking to show up like what should happen. But I’m not seeing any evidence of a solid -NAO yet.
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Some of the stuff that Bob Chill said on American recently was interesting (and stuff I was able to grasp! at least some). The big thing that I got was he's not sold that the pacific jet will do what it did in December and blast all of the cold out of United States as there is a cold pool near there this time. I think that's the biggie on what I'm worried about. If the pacific wakes up and turns most of the US into being mild, we can probably turn the lights out in Alabama-Georgia-South Carolina after January ends.
 
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Ok I like this look considering icon has a warm bias. Upstate sc and Georgia would be in play to


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GeorgiaGirl said:
Some of the stuff that Bob Chill said on American recently was interesting (and stuff I was able to grasp! at least some). The big thing that I got was he's not sold that the pacific jet will do what it did in December and blast all of the cold out of United States as there is a cold pool near there this time. I think that's the biggie on what I'm worried about. If the pacific wakes up and turns most of the US into being mild, we can probably turn the lights out in Alabama-Georgia-South Carolina after January ends.
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That’s a good point. If we get a raging PAC jet, yeah you can kiss it goodbye. I do not think that will lock into place, though. We may see it influence the pattern for a bit, but I think it relaxes and a ridge goes up in the west again shortly. All that’s if the pattern breaks down appreciably in the first place.
 
Well here’s a positive. Warm biased ICON goes in the freezer. Euro might have legs. JB scores the coup?
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Jessy89 said:
29eb7afc2fb70284bc0d80e66f512102.jpg


Ok I like this look considering icon has a warm bias. Upstate sc and Georgia would be in play to


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Yep, that would likely get it done for more Western areas. Precip should be more expansive with a system that wound up.
 
Well, folks, any thoughts about entertaining the idea for a -PNA in early Feb. are out the window based on the latest EPS, which isn’t surprising considering El Niño, the promise of weak MJO phases on left side of circle, etc. Look out Fab Feb, here we go!
 
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I know this place is a damn ghost town now BUT, strong CAD signature and over all ACTIVE pattern on 12z GFS. We are one good run away from Storm offering to sodomize pigs. Ok maybe two runs.


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