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Pattern Jammin' January

Chattownsnow said:
This was the ensembles of the GFS last year before the arctic plunges. Just a story of caution as I ended up with literally 0 inches of snow. This is Webber’s map of what actually happened during this period.View attachment 11212This is Webber’s map of what actually happened during this period. View attachment 11213

Just goes to show you the potential but even this far out ensembles are not gospel either. patients folks, patients.
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Would this be a different system from this Saturday's event?
 
So far 12z looks to be a slightly different look to all the others at 186 will it cut or be a overrunning type event for deep south?
 
GFS looks faster and has CAD to start in NC, honestly if the HP was actually as modeled, there'd probably be at least a bit more CAD.

But it's probably otherwise a no go.
 
The story for both storms is the 20th storm cuts and the 23-24th storm takes a very similar track, there is fairly good agreement among the major globals of this happening too. If you want snow in the Deep South or east of the Apps we HAVE to get something to suppress our storms or hope for a PERFECTLY timed northern/southern wave combo. So far all I see is cutter after cutter and that's not going to work for most of us hoping to see wintry weather. We need the PV pressing down to suppress the storm track.
 
GFS cuts the 23-24 storm majorly, cold chasing moisture for parts of the south, we’ll see if the ensembles support this.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png
 
Another look from the gfs this run. Great high, but it’s moving out quickly. Let’s see what the doc says
 
snowlover91 said:
The story for both storms is the 20th storm cuts and the 23-24th storm takes a very similar track, there is fairly good agreement among the major globals of this happening too. If you want snow in the Deep South or east of the Apps we HAVE to get something to suppress our storms or hope for a PERFECTLY timed northern/southern wave combo. So far all I see is cutter after cutter and that's not going to work for most of us hoping to see wintry weather. We need the PV pressing down to suppress the storm track.
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The ensembles say differently though, sometimes they lead the way before the Globals jump on board.
 
RollTide18 said:
The ensembles say differently though, sometimes they lead the way before the Globals jump on board.
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Not all of them do, it's pretty split and honestly I'd say leaning towards the Apps runner/cutter. A few big ensembles are helping blur things.

But he's saying what the deal is for the Carolinas and honestly, eastern Georgia as well. The western part of the SE might be in better shape for a while. The looks that I see on the 500 mb maps in reasonable range are pretty good for there and not so great east.
 
GFS showing its bias and really amping up the system on the 23rd. Much better H5 look with the strong high, but we still need some work for a snowier outcome.
 
I think I see an overrunning set up forming at hr234 in the frames to come with the GFS with a wave coming in and the northern stream pressing down. Might get squashed before it turns into anything though.
 
RollTide18 said:
The ensembles say differently though, sometimes they lead the way before the Globals jump on board.
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The FV3 has been consistent in cutting both storms and the GFS is coming around to that idea for the 23-25th storm. The CMC also cuts it as well and I'm sure the Euro today will. The modeled 5h setup through the 26th does not favor GA, SC or NC and favors places like Texas/OK to Indiana and Maine until that changes. The end of the EPS shows the PV pressuring down to suppress the storm track and that is what we will need to see IMO, until then storms are going to keep cutting and most in the South will see cold followed by a warmup, rain and then more cold.
 
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