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Pattern Jammin' January

Jessy89 said:
My hope is we lock onto a storm by This weekend. Most importantly I want the cold here first


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Or better yet, have the cold coming in at the same time as a storm system is moving along the Gulf coast. If the cold gets here first, it would probably warm ahead of the next system.
 
pcbjr said:
somebody alert Larry !!!! ...
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Thanks for the alert. There’s been only one time since official records started (1870s) that SAV got measurable SN/IP in consecutive winters: 1988-9 and 1989-90. In addition to the SN, it gives significant ZR from the first storm (before a possible change to rain) due to the epic wedge from the very cold high. Have there ever been two measurable events this close together? I know of only one instance: 0.1” SN 12/30/1917 and 0.5” SN 1/2/1918.
Suffice it to say this was a dream run in the long range that has about as much chance of verifying closely as JB declaring winter over. But still fun to see!
 
I know it’s just long range noise but you can actually see the step down process on the FV3. Massive cutter on the 20th, little less of a cutter on the 25th, rubber on the 28th
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I know it’s just long range noise but you can actually see the step down process on the FV3. Massive cutter on the 20th, little less of a cutter on the 25th, rubber on the 28th
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The gfs was a significant improvement. Fv3 a major step down not sure which to go by if either one.


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Jessy89 said:
The gfs was a significant improvement. Fv3 a major step down not sure which to go by if either one.


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Going to change a 100 times before it actually happens. Main thing to take away from these runs is there is a good chance someone in the southeast will get a good winter storm out of this pattern.
 
pcbjr said:
That was 3/5ths of the "alert Larry" post ... ;)
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OTOH, with a weak Niño during prime climo, developing -NAO, progged possible extreme -AO, +PNA, -EPO, deepest solar minimum in possibly 200 years, lots of snowcover to the north, by then better to possibly excellent MJO location, and model consensus going batshoot late month, there’s no telling what might happen even in our areas. So, I wouldn’t bet the ranch against something extremely rare and special for our areas even if SAV got a once in a generation type of winter storm last winter. I mean if the index/climo slot is showing practically all 7s, that’s not the best time to bet against a wx jackpot.
 
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Finally, some storms showing up again on the model runs. GFS saying the end of the month will be jammin. That would be awesome to get two back to back storms like that. I am sure the runs will change between now and the 25th, but great to see the possibility there and some good signals for storms after the 20th.
 
GaWx said:
OTOH, with a weak Niño during prime climo, developing -NAO, progged possible extreme -AO, +PNA, -EPO, deepest solar minimum in possibly 200 years, lots of snowcover to the north, by then better to possibly excellent MJO location, and model consensus going batshoot late month, there’s no telling what might happen even in our areas. So, I wouldn’t bet the ranch against something extremely rare and special for our areas even if SAV got a once in a generation type of winter storm last winter. I mean if the index/climo slot is showing practically all 7s, that’s not the best time to bet against a wx jackpot.
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You found the other 2/5ths ... ;)
 
Don’t know if it’s been posted but this from Ryan
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