pcbjr
Member
somebody alert Larry !!!! ...
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
For those that are tossing the 18z GFS run, you shouldn't. The storm system is under 300 hrs. We're talking mid range, not long range. The 18z GFS run maybe the first run to work off of to look for trends on future model runs. You should not toss it.
Yep, fv/gfs were the first to catch on to the dec 8-9 storm
RollTide18
Member
Interested to see the new data at 0z, maybe the beginning of a trend. I'm not really focusing on the individual storms themselves but more of a possible trend towards a snowy pattern for the deep south.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
300 hours does not delineate the medium from the long-range, it's not even close. Closer to 120-168 hours is more applicable, we're a very long ways off from that.
Snownut
Member
We know with the upcoming pattern it's just a matter of time before a board wide storm hits
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
We gotta get this weekend artic front thru here first. Then we going to see what’s going to happen with this 2nd system for example: blocking, how much cold air, and etc.
Philstorm91
Member
Need that big storm low for 1/24 to swing further south to give south Louisiana a good thumping. The overall trend is very encouraging though.
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
GeorgiaGirl
Member
GEFS is on the clock and I think outside of one ensemble based on the COD meteorology website it doesn't show a similar solution. 
Oh well.
It might end up being a bit better than recent runs though, we'll see.
Oh well. It might end up being a bit better than recent runs though, we'll see.
Jessy89
Member
The models have consistently agreed to a pattern change. One that should produce a winter storm for a lot of the southeast. I really think that’s been pretty consistent
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
GEFS is on the clock and I think outside of one ensemble based on the COD meteorology website it doesn't show a similar solution.
It might end up being a bit better than recent runs though, we'll see.
Again this solution was in the gefs envelope of possible solutions . We shouldn’t see a drastic change on the 18z gefs
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
So, you're saying this storm system isn't in the mid range with it being in the 1/23 - 1/24 time frame? which is not far off from with it being in the 7 day window. Besides, the beginnings of the storm is under 240hrs. Mid range IMO.
GEFS mean after first snowstorm. Will post the rest of it when it is done.
Jessy89
Member
Oh my John ceserish on channel 4 just said we could have a winter storm the middle of next week. Can you believe he even mention something over 7 days away. I hope someone else heard that
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Snowflowxxl
Member
FV3 might have something here in a second...
Almost all gefs ensembles show alabama getting some backside snow with the 1/20 system
Fountainguy97
Member
Short range: 0-84hrs (short range models)
Mid range: 84-168 (models usually “lock down” a storm in mid range
Long range: 168+ Expect massive shifts run to run
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That storm is no less than 9 to even 10 days out, I wouldn’t consider this the medium range .
Snowflowxxl
Member
Short range 1-3
Mid Range 3-6
Long Range 6-9
9+ Nonsense
Mid Range 3-6
Long Range 6-9
9+ Nonsense
Long range but...even the regular GFS is very cold.
