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Pattern Jammin' January

Does anyone know when the ensembles will start running off the FV3? I would guess that would begin after the GFS is retired. They'll probably be awesome in the LR, since the FV3 appears to be cold-biased.
 
Rain Cold said:
This is a really good example of what we should be hoping to see eventually inside of 100 hours. From virtually 276-384, you get this:

View attachment 11077

To this:

View attachment 11078

I mean, that is a sustained and favorable winter pattern. The -NAO forces the PV south, which in turn suppresses the storm track south, and you have a nice ridge out west in a great location with a great orientation. If this comes anywhere close to reality, you will see many snowstorms start appearing on the models.
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Was just looking at that. We're on the same page dude. Let's wish and hope it into reality cause if it's going to happen, it seems like this is our year. Ensembles and Weeklies are showing something similar. Hopefully the week 2 weeklies tonight will show something similar. If so, I think it's game on.

And the WAR is dwindling into nothing, allowing a true -NAO with negative heights over Nova Scotia/SE Canada for a 50/50 low. Pretty stuff. Man I hope it comes true.

1547490970928.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Does anyone know when the ensembles will start running off the FV3? I would guess that would begin after the GFS is retired. They'll probably be awesome in the LR, since the FV3 appears to be cold-biased.
Click to expand...

Not til at least early 2020, thank goodness. Yep, fake awesomeness coming up OMG lol.

Thanks goodness we'll always have the King and his ensembles to keep us grounded.
 
Euro so is trying for the weekend. Prob a rain to snow thing if at all. Other energy behind might have a shot
 
I'm going to go back through the last couple of pages and put some banter posts in the banter thread. If you don't see the comments here, check there. Not intending to offend anyone, just want to keep this one uncluttered as uncluttered as possible.
 
deltadog03 said:
Euro so is trying for the weekend. Prob a rain to snow thing if at all. Other energy behind might have a shot
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Not that it matters but this run is close for some in Tennessee and is a big hit for Arkansas
8d63a96bc9500a305207c00f3f0a5ca9.jpg
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Storm5 said:
Not that it matters but this run is close for some in Tennessee and is a big hit for Arkansas
8d63a96bc9500a305207c00f3f0a5ca9.jpg
cfe85691c5412e4a7216bfe00b1eccf2.jpg




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Nice!! I would argue that there should be even more precipitation over our states...that will be something to watch for now, but I love where the pattern is headed for sure.
 
GaWx said:
Is it my imagination or is that really stupid almost idiotic cold on the 12Z Euro on 1/21 in the SE?
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I was thinking the same thing. Those temps at 850 are going to be below freezing for most of FL. I don't have the surface maps, so I'm not sure about those but I expect them to be really cold. Not to mention those -15 or so 850s above your area.
ecmwf_T850_seus_8.png
 
I honestly couldn't draw up a better map than this OP run of the euro by D10...starts before that....IF****** this comes close to verifying...well the nation would go into the deep freeze and there will be more than 1 legit threat across the SE...
euro.png
 
The PV is still too far north for my liking at D10, and the western ridge is too far west, oriented NE to SW, allowing for lower heights in the western US. What we will want to see here in order to prevent that storm from cutting is for the Low over Pennsylvania to bomb out and act like a 50/50 low. That will lock in confluence over the NE, causing the high dropping into North Dakota to slide east into a favorable location to feed cold air into the SE. At the same time the low over the TX panhandle will be forced east.

That's what we need to root for here. Otherwise, it cuts or Miller Bs, under the influence of weak wedging. Anyway, analyzing a D10 storm is almost useless. At least this gives us something to watch for.


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NCSNOW said:
This will be 4th day/afternoon in a row with sub 40 high at Greensboro.
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I don't think it is a coincidence that it has been the coldest since 1/10 when the MJO has been most favorable for SE cold (low amp 8 followed by into circle from left side). That's one reason I'm watching MJO forecasts closely and am hoping it gets back around to the left side and near or back inside the circle late month.
 
might not be in the SE, but Great Lake machines are about to be cranking with these artic blasts
 
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