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Pattern Jammin' January

SD said:
Good lord this pattern is going to drive you guys insane. Stay the course and we will get there. There are so many different short waves and orientations/amplitudes of key features that big run to run swings are to be expected. Follow where the ensembles are going and the ops will pin down the details as we get closer in time

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It already is driving me crazy. The potential for the 20th onward looks so good, and I think that is making everyone worry more about every model run because we are all scared we're going to have a great pattern but somehow still miss out on getting a good storm. We have a great team on the field, now we just have to hope to pick up some wins.
 
The pattern we appear to be heading into is better by far than the pattern we’re coming out of, no question about it. It is by no means ideal. The potential for storms to cut or Miller B is higher than the potential for suppressed southern sliders. I don’t know if that pattern exists anymore. So we’ll have to rely on timing. Cold will be nearby and short waves should be plentiful. That puts many of us in the game.

I honestly don’t get the bellyaching when the GFS doesn’t show a snowstorm. It’s not like it’s going to show a board-wide event and hold it for 300 hours. This is the kind of situation, like usual, where threats will appear around day 5.
 
Rain Cold said:
The pattern we appear to be heading into is better by far than the pattern we’re coming out of, no question about it. It is by no means ideal. The potential for storms to cut or Miller B is higher than the potential for suppressed southern sliders. I don’t know if that pattern exists anymore. So we’ll have to rely on timing. Cold will be nearby and short waves should be plentiful. That puts many of us in the game.

I honestly don’t get the bellyaching when the GFS doesn’t show a snowstorm. It’s not like it’s going to show a board-wide event and hold it for 300 hours. This is the kind of situation, like usual, where threats will appear around day 5.
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Or show up 7 to 10 days out, disappear, and then come back 3 days before it hits.
 
The pattern as day 10 gets going has the ridge/trough to far west to affect the Carolinas but hopefully better for Tx-GA. Still, good to see blocking try and develop.

Typically for Raleigh mid/end of February seems to be a popular time for us.

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Kylo said:
The pattern as day 10 gets going has the ridge/trough to far west to affect the Carolinas but hopefully better for Tx-GA. Still, good to see blocking try and develop.

Typically for Raleigh mid/end of February seems to be a popular time for us.

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That red blob south of Greenland is crap. It needs to be over Greenland or building info Canada. That feature has shown up continuously for the last decade and does nothing for us. Slightly higher heights over Greenland are mostly useless. Incidentally, it seems to often coincide with the trough centered where it is in your image. Hopefully, it evolves more favorably for the eastern SE from there.
 
So here’s a question. The fv3 is showing a unreal cold air still, while the gfs has backed off some on it for the moment. Which model do we believe? The Fv3(new gfs) or the old gfs??
 
This eps run is really cold
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Rain Cold said:
That red blob south of Greenland is crap. It needs to be over Greenland or building info Canada. That feature has shown up continuously for the last decade and does nothing for us. Slightly higher heights over Greenland are mostly useless. Incidentally, it seems to often coincide with the trough centered where it is in your image. Hopefully, it evolves more favorably for the eastern SE from there.
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Yeah, Newfoundland ridges ain’t good, opposites of what we want. But, good to see snow dumped into conus, it’s a start. Not a snow pattern for us yet, but hopefully others on here can score. We are probably our patented mid/end Feb time period.
 
Storm5 said:
I’m believing the old . The new one has a clear cold bias


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Looks like the ens mean split the difference. Also need to look at why we are getting cold on each model. Its not like they are showing the same upper pattern and the fv is magically colder.

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Storm5 said:
I’m believing the old . The new one has a clear cold bias


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I would think so also. Or take a combination of both for example.

Old gfs = low of 20
New gfs = low of 10
Then equal out the 2 ..

Which would be a low of 15.

I believe the gfs will be discontinued here soon. Hope they do fix the cold bias on the new one.
 
SD said:
Looks like the ens mean split the difference. Also need to look at why we are getting cold on each model. Its not like they are showing the same upper pattern and the fv is magically colder.

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Too bad most of our trolls have no idea how to figure that out . They just want to see snow maps and if they can’t be found they come out from under the bridge


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I do think the coldest air of the winter is on the way but some of the FV3 runs have been ridiculous and unrealistically cold. Last night's run had most of the eastern half of the nation below zero.
 
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