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Pattern Jammin' January

For the last two days, most of the fantasy storms have consisted of cold chasing moisture events... which work more so for LA through AL
 
Some GEFS members still show something for 1/20 but it is not as good as the 6z was.

Now on to the 23rd-25th time period.
 
If the ridge is not a strong as advertised (588dm), it could also serve to keep storms from being too suppressed with the arctic air intrusion. It doesn't work out that way too often but has helped in the past. Just my .02.
 
If you think winter wx is a sure thing with the pattern we’re ”entering” Grit on the other board reminded me of 94’..two major arctic outbreaks with a big rainstorm wedged in between..even when we’re not threading the needle, we’re threading the needle
 
Pretty much all gefs ensembles have some sort of winter weather after the 20th in the southeast, really good pattern coming up
 
The good news is the GEFS looked a little more favorable than the GFS for that second system on the 23/24. No ridge popping like the op. Room for improvement B7B4A6B7-89FF-490F-87D0-B47EB7EB4511.png
 
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