Pattern Jammin' January

[Webberweather53]

Is that true all the time? The 6z gefs nicely retrogrades the war to a nice full block up top, with a look similar to the weeklies. Are you saying if that happens it's likely to be a very temporary fixture?

Retrograding that ridge to a greenland block seems the only to way to get a -nao in the near term, as theres a permanent trough near Scandinavia.

It happens the vast majority of the time, anticyclones that break from underneath south of Greenland literally push the storm track further north which causes the jet stream to accelerate by angular momentum conservation thereby causing heights to fall in response near the climatological position of the Icelandic Low after the anticyclone has run its course. It’s rare to have an anticyclone break south of Greenland and become a strong negative NAO for more than a few days, the preferred area for anticyclonic wave breaking becoming negative NAOs is near Western Europe and Scandinavia at the exit region of the Atlantic jet.

 

[Stormdoc]

As is usually the case it all depends on timing the waves with cold. The GEFS ensembles show that odds are higher than usual for winter weather with this pattern, but obviously we can strike out too in good patterns, it’s what we are good at in the SE! But as others have said bring me the cold and I’ll take my chances, especially in El Niño.

 

[Kylo]

Curious to see how much colder the EPS has trended from day 10 to todays day 7. Makes you wonder just how cold it can get day 10+.

 

[GaWx]

Curious to see how much colder the EPS has trended from day 10 to todays day 7. Makes you wonder just how cold it can get day 10+.

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Notice also that as the cold to our west has intensified greatly over these runs, the SE warmth just in advance of the cold coming here has not surprisingly also intensified. So, more extremes with deeper trough.

 

[Kylo]

Don't like putting all my eggs in the GEFS basket but the number of members showing snow day 8-9 has gone up the past few runs.

 

[Fountainguy97]

Eps trends are still very good for us.



We may very well see the surface respond down the road past 144. You can clearly see the tightening isobars north of the LP.

IF this trend continues into the run this will get interesting.

 

[Storm5]

Looking way out , all ensembles continue blocking in some form or fashion meaning the cold shots will continue

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[tennessee storm]

Looking way out , all ensembles continue blocking in some form or fashion meaning the cold shots will continue

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that looks fairly blocky for sure... lets see if it holds moving forward

 

[Arcc]

Eps trends are still very good for us.
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We may very well see the surface respond down the road past 144. You can clearly see the tightening isobars north of the LP.

IF this trend continues into the run this will get interesting.

Yep, and this look on the Euro is definitely worth watching.

 

[Storm5]

that looks fairly blocky for sure... lets see if it holds moving forward

So far the blocking that was showing has moved forward and by day 8 we are cold on most of the guidance . Hopefully a sign everything continues moving forward


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[Fountainguy97]

So far the blocking that was showing has moved forward and by day 8 we are cold on most of the guidance . Hopefully a sign everything continues moving forward


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Yeah as long as the 20th system remains amplified and a large system then our pattern change and cold will move forward with it. This upcoming cold look is legit. First cold push is inside 200hrs and the push begins at 130hrs. So this first one atleast is legit.

And often times we see storms and cold air build on one another. So if the first one pans out then the chance of the 2nd and 3rd and beyond go up quickly.

These signals are likely very legit. Although there will be a lot of shifting outside 200hrs and it could always moderate and not be quite so intense.

But step one is get the first cold push and storm to verify. And so far we are doing that.

 

[Jessy89]

Need the low pressure to hug the coast a bit more. But there still a lot of potential here.


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[Jon]

Need the low pressure to hug the coast a bit more. But there still a lot of potential here.


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That system on that day, time and location will likely be gone next run. This is why...

Here’s the last 3 runs

These upper level energy depictions are so far off from one another, there’s no run to run consistency. There’s a northern stream, then it’s gone, then there’s a ULL off the west coast. Worlds apart.

What we need to watch first is if it locks on a specific wave at 500mb before we talk about how we want a mslp to trend.

For instance, for next weekend, there’s consistency in the modeled depiction of the 500mb Vort, with only minor changes in the wave.

So once the storm has run-to-run consistency with the upper air pattern, we can talk low location.

 

[accu35]

I know 6z gfs is done with, but looking at starting hour 156 time frame on the members, is starting to get my attention with this next system. Almost every one of them show some kind of wintry weather for central MS/AL/GA, not saying this will happen, I'm saying the gefs looks much much better for that time period than the OP run.

 

[Jon]

Yep, and this look on the Euro is definitely worth watching.

Still some wobbling with the western ridge run to run, would like to see this thing go neutral tilt earlier. Still lots of time, and I know we say this all the time but the energy isn’t even over the west coast until Thursday.


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[Webberweather53]

As expected, the EPS continues to move the goalposts on the placement of the east-southeast Canada Vortex, if this adjusts southward in weeks 2-3 like it is here, many will be reminded of the big PV lobes that paid the US a visit in 2013-14 & 2014-15 as we close out January.

 

[Webberweather53]

It's certainly nice to see the previous bout of poleward propagating AAM (warm colors top plot) being refracted back into the subtropics as -AAM builds near the surf zone, a configuration that's more conducive to high-latitude blocking.

 

[Jon]

As expected, the EPS continues to move the goalposts on the placement of the east-southeast Canada Vortex, if this adjusts southward in weeks 2-3 like it is here, many will be reminded of the big PV lobes that paid the US a visit in 2013-14 & 2014-15 as we close out January.

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Just responded on twitter but it’s something I’ve been watching too. Weeklies hinted at the same thing and the coldest period being Jan 29-Feb 10 or so, with some sub 0F temps for RDU which is just proof some members are absurd with this PV drop. I almost like deep cold (below 10 lows) more than snow, as I like extremes...I’d prefer that over a 1-2” snow.

With anomalous cold in eastern Canada and moisture rich storms from the STJ, it’s only a matter of time before we see a large storm for the SE. It’s been a while since we’ve seen true coastals absolutely bomb off the obx....


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[Cary_Snow95]

12z GFS continues to slow down the shortwave entering the west coast for the 20th storm

 

[Cary_Snow95]

This run is probably gonna flatten the wave before it can deepen enough