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Pattern Its Gonna Be May

Is this the spring whamby?
 
SD said:
I'd love .89 in a day the last time I had .89+ in a day was 1/12. I know a lot of folks here like to say "oh it's not dry" or "it'll rain" but the last 7 months as an aggregate haven't been great
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I feel you. It was like that all fall at my house and my entire fall garden failed due to lack of rain.
 
SD said:
I'd love .89 in a day the last time I had .89+ in a day was 1/12. I know a lot of folks here like to say "oh it's not dry" or "it'll rain" but the last 7 months as an aggregate haven't been great
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Yep, it's dry:

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I'm not really that far from you. Going into May almost 5" below normal for MBY.
 
FallsLake said:
My yard is really hurting. I really hope the euro output materializes. But, I've seen great model runs not verify during drought conditions. There's that saying, "drought begets drought".
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I'd feel a lot better if we were getting a big upper low parked west of the region here. This setup should give us all some rain but unless we get a front with a solid line of storms or a mcs with good coverage it's got the characteristics of big winners big losers. I'd really hate to walk out of this with something like .3 while other places close by have 4.3 but it seems possible if not likely
 
Looks like we get a weak backdoor front to move into the state overnight that'll probably be the catalyst for convection tomorrow afternoon really want it to be overhead or just to your south. 12z hrrr shows it wellhrrr_ref_frzn_seus_fh31-40.gif
 
SD said:
I'd feel a lot better if we were getting a big upper low parked west of the region here. This setup should give us all some rain but unless we get a front with a solid line of storms or a mcs with good coverage it's got the characteristics of big winners big losers. I'd really hate to walk out of this with something like .3 while other places close by have 4.3 but it seems possible if not likely
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On the front end of this evening's rain, I think some areas around here will end up with a couple slow to no movers. Hoping my yard will be part of it.
 
SD said:
Looks like we get a weak backdoor front to move into the state overnight that'll probably be the catalyst for convection tomorrow afternoon really want it to be overhead or just to your south. 12z hrrr shows it wellView attachment 147571
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It actually just moved through here, some nice NE breeze with it
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Aside from the big overnight totals into this morning there should be another round of big winners this afternoon. You'd think the catalysts for storms later would be the differential heating boundary east of this mornings rain, the backdoor front, and the incoming mcv. All of that to say congrats if you live along along or west/north of a line from Rockingham, sanford, raleigh, zebulon, rocky mount. Us suckers to the SE are going to take a fat L today
 
SD said:
Aside from the big overnight totals into this morning there should be another round of big winners this afternoon. You'd think the catalysts for storms later would be the differential heating boundary east of this mornings rain, the backdoor front, and the incoming mcv. All of that to say congrats if you live along along or west/north of a line from Rockingham, sanford, raleigh, zebulon, rocky mount. Us suckers to the SE are going to take a fat L today
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As well as those to the NE of that area
 
JHS said:
The stuff below Fayetteville may end up coming your way. It is not much now, but I would expect an increase in its coverage later.
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Yeah I'm pretty excited to see it wasn't expecting much to form in that region most models were mixing out dews in that area today
 
JHS said:
The stuff below Fayetteville may end up coming your way. It is not much now, but I would expect an increase in its coverage later.
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Hopefully, additional activity develops. The trajectory of the current activity looks to carry it off to the west of our area.
 
SD said:
Didn't you just post a few days ago that it was raining there?
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We had been doing ok, but the usual summer pattern is here now, which means we either get a ton of rain or stay dry. There is not much of an in between here once May arrives.
 
Pretty much all the globals continue to show a front coming through next weeknd with some refreshing air; but some definite heat (for early May) middle of next week. After that, GFS wants to keep it a bit unsettled with several more fronts coming through for the remainder of the run.
 
The summer pattern is certainly here. Barely a drop while many areas get 1-2 inches of rain. No more chances here either until maybe Friday.
 
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