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Tropical Invest 96L

Brent

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This could be an interesting one

AL, 96, 2019080100, , BEST, 0, 96N, 357W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010, SPAWNINVEST, al722019 to al962019,received_451736552075066.jpeg
 
This could be an interesting one

AL, 96, 2019080100, , BEST, 0, 96N, 357W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010, SPAWNINVEST, al722019 to al962019,View attachment 21351
Depends on one's interest ... but regardless, it's got some room to do something bad ... look at shear, upper air, SAL ... red ... looks like it well may be more than that ...
 
Depends on one's interest ... but regardless, it's got some room to do something bad ... look at shear, upper air, SAL ... red ... looks like it well may be more than that ...
I'm with ya...will be interested to see what happens with the Euro in the next 24-48 hours....
 
Looking nice and active in Caribbean for August! That ---- wave Webber was talking about , better move on out by cruise time!!?
 
HERE IS MY PROJECTED PATH... I KNOW IT MAY CHANGE BUT I LIKE TO SEE HOW CLOSE/FAR OFF I AM

View attachment 21356

If this gets close to the gulf and doesnt recurve, it is likely a much bigger problem for Phil and the west coast of FL. With the eastern trough wanting to stay put, it will likely hook east at some point.
 
Took a look at the old gfs on Pivotal Weather. It stays off the coast for several days finally making landfall around Wilmington at hour 300. Definitely a stronger and farther west ridge. It eventually breaks and gets caught up with a low.7AE8F39C-7252-454E-9658-7726DD76A008.jpeg
500mb
7C5F5D9A-94AC-4395-9510-6D111250CFE0.jpeg
 
I also counted up the GEFS members. I saw 12 storms that held up, of those, 4 like the Gfs legacy. 1 goes into the gulf


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Looks west this run so far
gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_19.png
 
Probably going to be much closer to the coast this run, similar to the 18z run of the old gfs. here’s a comparison
FV3
BA5D62E2-CF6E-45A9-B1BC-1B7EBF7AA470.jpeg
GFS74A829AD-164F-408C-B2F8-965FCC0D1E64.jpeg
 
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