Tropical Invest 96L

[Brent]

This could be an interesting one

AL, 96, 2019080100, , BEST, 0, 96N, 357W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010, SPAWNINVEST, al722019 to al962019,

 

[pcbjr]

This could be an interesting one

AL, 96, 2019080100, , BEST, 0, 96N, 357W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010, SPAWNINVEST, al722019 to al962019,View attachment 21351

Depends on one's interest ... but regardless, it's got some room to do something bad ... look at shear, upper air, SAL ... red ... looks like it well may be more than that ...

 

[pcbjr]

... and FWIW ...

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

HERE IS MY PROJECTED PATH... I KNOW IT MAY CHANGE BUT I LIKE TO SEE HOW CLOSE/FAR OFF I AM

 

[Henry2326]

HERE IS MY PROJECTED PATH... I KNOW IT MAY CHANGE BUT I LIKE TO SEE HOW CLOSE/FAR OFF I AM

View attachment 21356

Interesting....why?

 

[Henry2326]

Depends on one's interest ... but regardless, it's got some room to do something bad ... look at shear, upper air, SAL ... red ... looks like it well may be more than that ...

I'm with ya...will be interested to see what happens with the Euro in the next 24-48 hours....

 

[pcbjr]

HERE IS MY PROJECTED PATH... I KNOW IT MAY CHANGE BUT I LIKE TO SEE HOW CLOSE/FAR OFF I AM

View attachment 21356

... and mine ...

 

[Henry2326]

... and mine ...

View attachment 21357

LOL

 

[Tarheel1]

Looking nice and active in Caribbean for August! That ---- wave Webber was talking about , better move on out by cruise time!!?

 

[Arcc]

HERE IS MY PROJECTED PATH... I KNOW IT MAY CHANGE BUT I LIKE TO SEE HOW CLOSE/FAR OFF I AM

View attachment 21356

If this gets close to the gulf and doesnt recurve, it is likely a much bigger problem for Phil and the west coast of FL. With the eastern trough wanting to stay put, it will likely hook east at some point.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Took a look at the old gfs on Pivotal Weather. It stays off the coast for several days finally making landfall around Wilmington at hour 300. Definitely a stronger and farther west ridge. It eventually breaks and gets caught up with a low.
500mb

 

[Ollie Williams]

I also counted up the GEFS members. I saw 12 storms that held up, of those, 4 like the Gfs legacy. 1 goes into the gulf


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[accu35]

Looks west this run so far

 

[accu35]

 

[Ollie Williams]

Gfs weaker and further south


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Brent]

Headed for Hispanola a weaker solution but maybe more threatening down the road

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

ALREADY LOOKING PRETTY DECENT

 

[Ollie Williams]

Probably going to be much closer to the coast this run, similar to the 18z run of the old gfs. here’s a comparison
FV3

GFS

 

[Brent]

Its gonna be close

 

[BufordWX]

From hour 204 to 222 the gfs has the storm moving really slowly over the Bahamas.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Gfs legacy looking bad. Looking weak but has the Bermuda high very far west. Could even take a shot at Florida or even the gulf.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Brent]

Looks like a very close recurve

 

[BufordWX]

Florida hit on old GFS at day 9. Right into Miami as a minimal hurricane based off pressure I would say.

 

[Brent]

old GFS near Tampa and moving quickly at day 9

new GFS stalled off the SE at day 11

 

[accu35]

Drifting south lol

 

[Brent]

at day 12 or 300 hours out new GFS is moving SW towards Florida

 

[Brent]

Headed for Canaveral in only 13 days!

 

[Ollie Williams]

R.I.P Florida beaches
-00z GFS


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Brent]

actually now its drifting north

I think the GFS carried over happy hour

 

[Brent]

Moving NE parallel to the coast in 2 weeks! Does not make landfall!

 

[accu35]

Old gfs almost in gulf, west coast Florida

 

[Ollie Williams]

CMC still OTS however much further west


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Ollie Williams]

GEFS has more storms this run however most all of them are OTS.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[BufordWX]

48 hour chance of development is now up to 10%.

A broad low pressure system located about 900 miles west-southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is possible during
the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at
about 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for development over the
weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next
week several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

New gfs turns that cane into a beautiful monstrous extra-tropical cyclone not far from the NE, it’s at the end of the run but talk about how impressive that looks, scorpions tail with it likely signaling a sting jet as it’s transitioning from being just tropical, the wind field from the transition would be very large/powerful, that fasho

 

[BufordWX]

0z euro has practically nothing at day 7.

 

[Brent]

the Euro at day 9 when the GFS has a major hurricane off FL says what storm

 

[Webberweather53]

This tweet thread basically summarizes my thoughts on 96L atm.




I also recommend giving this paper a read on how TUTTs influence the intensification of newly formed tropical cyclones, as we may see w/ 96L later this week.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0275.1

 

[Henry2326]

Poof....gone at 06z on all models....

 

[Shaggy]

Poof....gone at 06z on all models....

Pulled a Kaiser Soze on us for sure.