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Tropical Invest 94L

metwannabe

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Time for obs thread? up to nearly a 100% chance based on the models for 1-3” rain bands to start moving in late tonight from the eastern OBX all the way to the blue ridge mtns. The system is bringing tropical moisture for all as seen on NAM and nearly all short term guidance for this week and I believe any stronger cells could produce flash flooding with 1-2” rates.
No obs thread.... just discuss anything with this system in here for now. We have enough threads atm.
 

Downeastnc

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If this goes we dont need it turning into a slow moving rain maker, this is the kind of setup that leads to big inland flooding if another storms hits mid to end of the month...doesnt look to threatening or organized at the moment but decent low level swirl on Vis right around 30/70

two_atl_5d0.png
 

Bannerdude

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Shear environment has improved and consequently there's a nice blowup of convection around the COC this morning
 

Downeastnc

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As I expected, over performing for some currently down East with flash flood warnings along the NC/VA border area. More to come
The rain right now really isnt associated directly with 94L...."94L" is still well south of NC and struggling to maintain even small storm flare ups around its llc....
 

Tornadocane

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Moderators should just change the thread to "That New Mess in the Bahamas", because it'd be a Cinderella Story if it manages to develop.
 

GaWx

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Globals, including the Euro or especially the Euro, have struggled with genesis this year. It may turn out to be basically nothing but we shall see
94L, itself, turned out to be nothing, which means the non-ICON global models not having genesis did well and the ICON’s having had genesis on numerous runs along with a landfall in the Carolinas until not that long ago make it a big fail.
 

Tornadocane

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I don't know why NWS Miami updated their forecast with only a 50% and 30% chance of rain today and tonight. We already got an inch and Ft. Lauderdale received over a half inch. Miami is closing in on 2 inches. We should be under some sort of flood watch at this point. Even the low resolution models are picking up on the heavy rain over the next 72 hours.
 
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