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Tropical Invest 94L

SD

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Wanted to go ahead and get a thread going for this area of interest. Some of the 0z EPS members develop a sfc low with this area and track it to the SE coast late in the week as anything from a depression to a hurricane. Conditions as a whole are not that favorable for the next couple of days but improve later in the week. Currently it looks like there may be 2 low level circulations associated with the overall trough. This one is worth keeping an eye on, if for nothing else than it may slow considerably as it approaches the coast and may any to enhance rain chances in the eastern Carolinas
 

SD

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Icon is the most bullish of the operational models icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_40.png
Euro has a 850mb reflection nearly on top of the icon
ecmwf_uv850_vort_seus_6.png
Euro is pretty meh at the sfc
ecmwf_mslpa_us_6 (1).png
The Canadian ensembles like the idea of development but many go strong quick and rocket more north than west with the weaker members moving toward the SE coast gem-ememb_lowlocs_eus_17.png
 

GaWx

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This is the “ridge over troubled water” home-grown setup JB often mentions. Here’s the end of the 6Z EPS (144). I’m leaning to a track toward NC, especially if it were to get to a TS+, based on EPS mean left bias although the track as well as whether or not it ever even becomes a TC is obviously anyone’s guess this early (only ~20% of members even have a TC at 144 though this is about tied with the 0Z as the most active as any EPS to date):

8652911E-F1AC-4A14-A243-6C100A22621B.gif

Edit/aside: the lower right corner shows some of 92L members. The last two EPS means have shifted a lot to the W fwiw, which means not as strong an OTS recurve chance as earlier EPS runs had been showing.
 
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SD

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This is the “ridge over troubled water” home-grown setup JB often mentions. Here’s the end of the 6Z EPS (144). I’m leaning to a track toward NC, especially if it were to get to a TS+, based on EPS mean left bias although the track as well as whether or not it ever even becomes a TC is obviously anyone’s guess this early (only ~20% of members even have a TC at 144):

View attachment 48099
It's an interesting case. Chances of development aren't incredibly high but as you can see from the EPS members that develop it half are sub 1000mb on pressure.
 

GaWx

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12Z ICON hits NC/further N track vs earlier runs. Also, there shouldn’t be that loop SW from there as this run finishes due to a totally different setup.
 

Henry2326

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12Z ICON hits NC/further N track vs earlier runs. Also, there shouldn’t be that loop SW from there as this run finishes due to a totally different setup.
Yeah, now that makes sense compared to 00z. Still squinting at 12z GFS.....not much there
 

910guy

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12Z ICON hits NC/further N track vs earlier runs. Also, there shouldn’t be that loop SW from there as this run finishes due to a totally different setup.
Hope this doesn’t turn into the scenario we all love so much. A smaller storm comes onshore and soaks us, followed by a larger storm that really brings the flooding. Been there a couple of times lately, not a fan.
 

Henry2326

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Hope this doesn’t turn into the scenario we all love so much. A smaller storm comes onshore and soaks us, followed by a larger storm that really brings the flooding. Been there a couple of times lately, not a fan.
Seems to be a trend....
 

accu35

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By the time it start moving closer to the coast it will shoot north probably. Especially if it slow down
 

Henry2326

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18z Icon....still north....and #1 in the MDR is slightly SOUTH of the12z position.......

ScreenshotCapture_2020_09_06_17_35_22_801.jpg
 
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GaWx

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To me, if anything, this system looks no more developed than 24 hours ago and perhaps is weaker being that 24 hours ago it had convection surrounding that LLC. I'm not calling it dead or saying it won't develop later as nobody knows, but it is being sheared pretty nicely right now. Maybe that's why the 12Z EPS wasn't as active with it as it has been this way since before 12Z (8 AM EDT) today.
 

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This evening this remains sheared with a mainly naked center now almost due S of Bermuda and moving WSW.

Here is the 18Z EPS through the end of the run. Similar to the 12Z, it isn't as active off the SE coast as the 0Z/6Z. The average track off the SE coast is further south, centered on N FL. This could directly affect Phil, who is being updated, though no cause for big concern right now. There is more Gulf activity than previous runs from members moving over FL:

1599444100543.png
 

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Still has a little low level reflection S of Bermuda this morning. 6z Icon continues to be bullish on development.
 

BirdManDoomW

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Wasn’t Katrina a very weak low level reflection with no model support East of Florida...
 
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