Tropical Invest 94L

[Tarheel1]

So we're generally talking a out 2 weeks-ish before getting near the US. I'm going to guess that the upper air patter at that time will look a bit different tha. It is currently progged, as was alluded to before.

Patterns tend to repeat, so the same general pattern that gives us eternal summer til November, and what generally steered Dorian, could easily be about the same, and the model consensus is quite amazing! Also, if the models were right about snowstorms 10 days out , every time, I don’t think we would get bored of tracking!? Same with tropics!

 

[Rain Cold]

Patterns tend to repeat, so the same general pattern that gives us eternal summer til November, and what generally steered Dorian, could easily be about the same, and the model consensus is quite amazing! Also, if the models were right about snowstorms 10 days out , every time, I don’t think we would get bored of tracking!? Same with tropics!

Kind of agree. This time of year, though, there is a tendency for troughs to more frequently dig just a little deeper. The near term to medium term environment looks good to keep waves at that latitude south and on a general westerly track. 7-10 days from now is when I will start paying closer attention, as we should have a decent idea around that time as to the probability of landfall.

 

[Shaggy]

Is it just me or does anyone else feel like we are one solid sustained burst of solid convection away from 94L taking off?

 

[ryanardo]

This time of year screams it to sea with most systems in the Atlantic basin, maybe a gulf run and ride a cold front, way to early to think anything

 

[GaWx]

This time of year screams it to sea with most systems in the Atlantic basin, maybe a gulf run and ride a cold front, way to early to think anything

TCs with an actual tropical genesis east of 50W in general favor an OTS over a hit on the CONUS at any point in the season though that isn't as favored in July and August as it is in Sep+. So, the threat level to the CONUS is usually higher when genesis is west of 50W. The system over W Africa is not being shown to develop much before 50W for the most part. Therefore, the risk to the CONUS may not be that low.

 

[Snowfan]

A broad area of low pressure and an associated tropical wave are
producing showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles west of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Some slow development of this system is
possible during the next several days while the low moves westward
across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

 

[Snowfan]

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred
miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some slow development of this
system is possible during the next few days while the low moves
west-southwestward to westward across the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean. By Thursday, the upper-level winds are forecast to become
less favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

 

[Snowfan]

A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave,
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Windward
Islands. Some slow development of this system is possible during the
next two or three days before upper-level winds become unfavorable
for tropical cyclone formation. This system is expected to move
generally westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

 

[GaWx]

Based on the model consensus of strong E US/W Atlantic ridging being forecasted for the 7-10 day period, 94L would actually be more concerning to me from a CONUS perspective than the wave now moving off Africa. So, any unexpected genesis of this needs to be monitored extra closely for the CONUS.

 

[Henry2326]

TCs with an actual tropical genesis east of 50W in general favor an OTS over a hit on the CONUS at any point in the season though that isn't as favored in July and August as it is in Sep+. So, the threat level to the CONUS is usually higher when genesis is west of 50W. The system over W Africa is not being shown to develop much before 50W for the most part. Therefore, the risk to the CONUS may not be that low.

I.e. Hugo

 

[ForsythSnow]

I.e. Hugo

Hugo was a special case. Idk why it keeps being brought up. The track was unique to go dead inland into SC at that angle. Florence was also a special case, and it took a lot for Ivan to loop around the US as well. It also took a unique setup to get Sandy into NY.

I'd focus on a broad area rather than a specific storm at this time. The general setup is there for it to be a recurver and miss the US to it going south of the islands and curving up into the Gulf. Partially it's due to climo, but it's also the general ridge setup. If there is a weakness in the ridge, it's going to go more north. If there's a strong bridged ridge, then it'll go more south.

 

[Henry2326]

Hugo was a special case. Idk why it keeps being brought up. The track was unique to go dead inland into SC at that angle. Florence was also a special case, and it took a lot for Ivan to loop around the US as well. It also took a unique setup to get Sandy into NY.

I'd focus on a broad area rather than a specific storm at this time. The general setup is there for it to be a recurver and miss the US to it going south of the islands and curving up into the Gulf. Partially it's due to climo, but it's also the general ridge setup. If there is a weakness in the ridge, it's going to go more north. If there's a strong bridged ridge, then it'll go more south.

Comment related to genesis east of 50

 

[Snowfan]

A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave,
centered about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next two or three
days before upper-level winds become unfavorable for tropical
cyclone formation. This system is expected to move generally
westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Hugo was a special case. Idk why it keeps being brought up. The track was unique to go dead inland into SC at that angle. Florence was also a special case, and it took a lot for Ivan to loop around the US as well. It also took a unique setup to get Sandy into NY.

I'd focus on a broad area rather than a specific storm at this time. The general setup is there for it to be a recurver and miss the US to it going south of the islands and curving up into the Gulf. Partially it's due to climo, but it's also the general ridge setup. If there is a weakness in the ridge, it's going to go more north. If there's a strong bridged ridge, then it'll go more south.

Exactly. To add on, we see those interesting shifts in the near time. If you remember Florence was expected to go inland around the high. However close to Verification time, models started shifting It to make a weird curve. Same thing with Sandy as models projected it to go OTS LR. As @ForsythSnow said above the pattern Is more important this far out. Models will correct and change as we get closer due to the nature of more data comes in.

 

[Snowfan]

A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave located
about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although some slight
development of this system is possible today or Wednesday, by
Thursday, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation. This disturbance is expected to move
slowly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.