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Tropical Hurricane Zeta

6Z EPS: most active yet with ~20% with a TC: watch out N Gulf coast, especially

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6Z EPS rainfall:

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A bit concerned if the Geps version happens.....prime real estate for something to blow up.

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This one bears watching and is a little concerning to me. Not a lot to really cause a right hook south of Fl, maybe a little hope that it can sneak under the trough and inch west toward Mexico. Really hard though to not think a run at the US is probable with the SE ridge betting squished into the SW Atl and the trough approaching from the west. Personally I think the area of concern is from Mobile to Tampa, with the biggest oh poop threat being this starts to organize rapidly as it's inching north then increases forward speed in time and is moving quickly toward the US coastline with limited time to weaken. The satellite this morning doesn't look bad and this may make a run at TC status by tomorrow.

As @Myfrotho704_ said in the October thread if this were to be a formidable system making LF along the gulf coast and moving northward the ET processes from the incoming trough/cutoff would lead toward a fairly impactful system well inland
 
The next 48-60 hours will be interesting to watch, models really want to string out the vorticity as a shortwave passes across the southern US out into the Atlantic. Stringy vorticity and maybe a little shear would probably lead toward a westward and weaker end game, if the vorticity doesn't string out it would likely end up stronger and east.
 
Zeta?

Satellite images and radar data indicate that the broad area of low
pressure located just west of Grand Cayman Island is gradually
becoming better defined. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for further development, and a tropical depression will likely form
during the next day or two while the low drifts toward the
northwest. The system could move near western Cuba by Sunday and
move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early next
week. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern
Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over
portions of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, southern Florida,
the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
12z HWRF
rides the FL coast to GA......if this things blows up, this would be a situation.

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