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Tropical Hurricane Sally Inland Effects

I’m not buying the insanely high totals well inland and north at all. If models trend towards that then great, but I’ve seen enough of a trend away from that today that I was surprised when they upped totals this evening
I agree, was sorta shocked to see BIrmingham NWS Office go with 6” to 8” totals this afternoon package.
 
Looks like some confusion here I’m reading. Go to the NHC says fast moving system for us. It’s only slow near landfall. Quiet a big difference there. This helps us a lot.. lessens some of the flood threat. A CAT5 or tropical depression the point is mute up here when it stalls down there with historic flooding it’s gonna die on land. This could have been much worse for us had the track shifted north and the system was quicker then stalled near Atlanta. There’s no chance of that happening.
I don’t think there’s really much confusion on speed and timing for the Carolinas. GSP covers very well in the afternoon discussion as to why they are going with 2-6 inches of rainfall for their entire forecast area with locally heavier amounts. They mention how Sally is not the only piece of the puzzle that sets the Carolinas up for heavy rainfall. Now I would tend to agree that Northern GA will likely end up with more rainfall than anywhere in the Carolinas with one exception... wherever the wedge boundary sets up on Wednesday could be a focal point of rainfall well out ahead of storm itself... most likely that would be the Eastern Upstate of SC into the the SE Piedmont of NC. Even Brad P. is going with 4-7 inches across the southern NC mountains and foothills and western Upstate with 3-5 inches for the southern Piedmont and 2-4 inches from the I-40 corridor to VA border... anyone that watches him regular knows that those are some bullish amounts for him more than 48 hours out.
 
I don’t think there’s really much confusion on speed and timing for the Carolinas. GSP covers very well in the afternoon discussion as to why they are going with 2-6 inches of rainfall for their entire forecast area with locally heavier amounts. They mention how Sally is not the only piece of the puzzle that sets the Carolinas up for heavy rainfall. Now I would tend to agree that Northern GA will likely end up with more rainfall than anywhere in the Carolinas with one exception... wherever the wedge boundary sets up on Wednesday could be a focal point of rainfall well out ahead of storm itself... most likely that would be the Eastern Upstate of SC into the the SE Piedmont of NC. Even Brad P. is going with 4-7 inches across the southern NC mountains and foothills and western Upstate with 3-5 inches for the southern Piedmont and 2-4 inches from the I-40 corridor to VA border... anyone that watches him regular knows that those are some bullish amounts for him more than 48 hours out.

It’s crazy how reading discussions really helps you grow as a forecaster.


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Even with Irma I think we only got like 2-3in. 6-8 would be crazy and case major flooding around Atlanta.
If these totals verify, there will be some serious flooding around here.

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It’s crazy how reading discussions really helps you grow as a forecaster.


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Honestly I took a couple meteorology courses in college as electives simply because I love weather. However I think I’ve learned more about forecasting from reading NWS discussions and reading the posts from Mets on this board the last few years. Sorry if this is banter.
 
I have no idea, I was just looking at their rainfall prediction map that you posted, probably the Euro though.
 
Which model are they leaning on?


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Typically at this time range they will use a blend of the GFS and Euro, but keep in mind that since the forecast involves a tropical system, they’ll use the forecast track that the NHC is putting out. GSP doesn’t usually mention the NAM outside of 60 hours.
 
GSP tonight.

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As much as I love GSP... their precip maps tend to bust, a lot. FCC has 2-3", 4-6" etc. GSP tries to be too precise. I also loathe the fact that our closest NWS office is a good 70 miles away. The CLT-Winston-GSO corridor in a very unique spot, climatology speaking. We also sit on the edge of multiple NWS offices. If CLT manages to see 2 inches and GSP gets 6 inches in a setup like this, then something isn't right. (Good god, I've become the "leader of the bird cult.") Help meeee. ?
 
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