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Tropical Hurricane Nate

Storm5 said:
It's amazing how the GFS and Euro and their ensembles are worlds apart . We are talking landfall Saturday .......
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As I assume you've noticed, the key is that the gfs is developing a surface low from the system now near the FL Straits and the Euro isn't. This leads to a weaker system hitting LA instead of a stronger storm further east. Who is right? Some people think a low is forming. Others don't. But if it does form, it may ultimately save the NE GOM coast from a big hit kind of like when Jose saved the SE US from Maria,
 
GaWx said:
As I assume you've noticed, the key is that the gfs is developing a surface low from the system now near the FL Straits and the Euro isn't. This leads to a weaker system hitting LA instead of a stronger storm further east. Who is right? Some people think a low is forming. Others don't. But if it does form, it may ultimately save the NE GOM coast from a big hit kind of like when Jose saved the SE US from Maria,
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water vapor strongly suggests such a surface low, fwiw ... thanks, Larry!
 
I guess that 12z HMON run was a fluke, it's coming in much stronger and further east on 18z vs. 12z.
 
Here's that weenie run of the HMON we know to love to hate. lol Cat. 4 hurricane traversing the GOM.
hmon_mslp_wind_16L_31.png
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Crazy the spread on the models considering it's really not too far off
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they're struggling with the interaction with the disturbance near Florida that is 0/0 in the TWO, it seems the better chance for it to stay west is for the disturbance to unexpectedly become something
 
gawxnative said:
IMO it is due to the fact that Nate has not really started a motion/vector for the models to get a grasp on. Hence they are all going their various "paths".. A thought with this is to see how each model derives their solutions and compare.
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Precisely ... and having posted that so many times this year, it's great to see someone else on board! ... :cool:
 
Storm5 said:
Ukmet already made a big west shift at 12z and is now near Mobile. Question is does it stick with that or shift back east . It loves jumping around lately

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I think the Ukie is a good bet right now. If I had to push my chips all in I'd say Pensacola to Mobile. But a lot to iron out in next 48. My stomach gets queezy at the notion of hedging bets for a GFS/CMC camp.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
I think the Ukie is a good bet right now. If I had to push my chips all in I'd say Pensacola to Mobile. But a lot to iron out in next 48. My stomach gets queezy at the notion of hedging bets for a GFS/CMC camp.
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Agreed , the post I saw about the ukmet being near Mobile wasn't correct . Looks like it's west of the Euro but closer to Pensacola. So while it was a west shift , it wasn't as a big of a shift as previously thought

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I'm in SD's camp, whatever model blanks the Carolinas, with no rain, take it to the bank! So as of now, GFS looks correct, based on that!
 
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