Tropical Hurricane Nate

[Xtreme Weather]

Hmm. RI possibly happening?

Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

Recent data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flights
indicate that Nate continues to strengthen and is near hurricane
strength. The NOAA plane measured a maximum 700-mb flight-level
wind of 75 kt, but the SFMR instruments on both planes have only
measured surface winds as high as 55 kt. It seems that the highest
winds haven't quite mixed down to the surface, but it's likely that
the system is at least producing surface winds of 60 kt, which will
be the initial intensity for this advisory. The NOAA flight also
reported that an eyewall is forming to the east of Nate's center.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Hmm. RI possibly happening?

I feel like we are about to. Convection seems stable. I remember seeing this happen with Maria. As soon as it overtook the center, there was no stopping her.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

 

[Weatherlover92]

Cloud tops continues to just explode on the E side drier air almost completely out now...oh boy
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-mloop-ft.html

Decent outflow and banding. If that convection can successfully wrap around the center completely we may have a formidable hurricane on our hands. 2017 has proven itself to be the year of overachievers despite what should be challenges against it. I think 90mph cat 1 at landfall is a good call right now. I would go 100mph cat. 2 on the high end, but I don’t want to jump the gun yet.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

check out the 0215 mark

 

[Storm5]

NHC shifts track slightly east as well

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[RollTide18]

Wow, NHC has Nate as Hurricane inland in South Alabama on Sunday Morning

 

[deltadog03]

So you do think it will be a hurricane now?

I do. I never said it wouldn't. At the time models were a TS at best but yes I do now. Specially more time over water

 

[Storm5]

11pm update

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[ForsythSnow]

Cat 2 FL winds?! It's rapidly intensifying.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

newest update got a H just east of MS after land fall

 

[Brent]

if this is bombing the models really failed horribly

 

[SoutheastRidge]

if this is bombing the models really failed horribly

Well as people have said before, models are horrible when it comes to intensity

 

[Brent]

Well as people have said before, models are horrible when it comes to intensity

at least with Harvey there was model support for it to bomb lol

 

[ForsythSnow]

If it's bombing it's feeding the hype train.

 

[Brent]

King 3km NAM lmao /runs

if it is bombing 2017 is the year of the hyped up models

 

[ForsythSnow]

King 3km NAM lmao /runs

if it is bombing 2017 is the year of the hyped up models

Only the older HMON runs could come close lol. NAM for the win?

 

[Storm5]

A stronger system will verify to the east . So if it continues to strengthen I would expect a few more east shifts with the track

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[Xtreme Weather]

Cloud top at max?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-mloop-rb.html

 

[ForsythSnow]

Flagged hurricane force winds. Near 74 knots max in fact.