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Tropical Hurricane Nate

ForsythSnow

ForsythSnow

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I think we may get an invest soon, and maybe a storm out of it later. It's starting point is a bit of a worry, as is its path.



1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad
area of low pressure has formed over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for
development, and this system could become a tropical depression
within the next few days while it drifts northwestward to northward
across the northwestern Caribbean and adjacent land areas and into
the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Regardless of development, this
system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central
America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 
This is now invest 90L.

FL, alone, gets hit about once every five years with a major H in Oct when SON Nino 3.4 is between 0 and -1.1. That's about 3 times the climo rate for all years, combined, and way higher than any other ENSO. ALL FL Oct major Hs have hit with SON Nino 3.4 anomalies between -0.03 and -1.10 and the model consensus prediction is for -0.50.

-0.03, -0.30, -0.32, -0.39, -0.40, -0.50, -0.66, -0.80, -1.00. and -1.10
 
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 27.8N 88.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2017 120 28.6N 87.7W 999 30
0000UTC 09.10.2017 132 30.3N 86.4W 997 33
1200UTC 09.10.2017 144 32.0N 83.5W 999 32

Edit: Ooops, this is the 12Z UKMET..
 
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The 12Z Euro track wallops far SE AL, E FL Panhandle, and SW GA with hurricane conditions. Afterward, strong TS conditions central GA to west-central SC and then into NC thereafter. 10/9 would be the big day for the SE US being affected should this track come close to verifying. But it is still kind of early and we know future model tracks will differ.
 
Based on early maps,.I feel pretty confident that the 12Z EPS will be even more active than the already active 0Z EPS.
 
If the Euro's path is correct, that won't be a low grade cat 1 in the Gulf, but a very strong major hurricane headed toward the US unless there is tons of shear or at least quite a bit.
 
ForsythSnow said:
If the Euro's path is correct, that won't be a low grade cat 1 in the Gulf, but a very strong major hurricane headed toward the US unless there is tons of shear or at least quite a bit.
Click to expand...
Wind shear does not look to be an issue at least as of now. To me it's pretty clear, the future strength will 100 percent be related to its track over the next 3 days and how much land interaction it has. The further west it tracks the more interaction it will have with the yucatan and the longer it will take to organize . The further east it stays the more time it spends over very warm water.
 
Keeping in mind the low resolution of ensemble members: practically every of the 50 12Z EPS members has a sub 1000 mb TC (implying TS+) at landfall on the US GOM coast and a good number have sub 992, which would mean H in most cases, especialy considering low res. Tracks are centered around the 12Z Euro op with many landfalls between N.O. and Sarasota, FL. 10/7-10.

As it goes inland, many members wallop parts of S AL and S GA and then on into N GA/SC/NC
 
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GaWx said:
Keeping in mind the low resolution of ensemble members: practically every of the 50 members has a sub 1000 mb TC at landfall on the US GOM coast and a good number have sub 992, which would mean H in most cases, especialy considering low res. Tracks are centered around the 12Z Euro op with many landfalls between N.O. and Sarasota, FL. 10/7-10.

As it goes inland, many members wallop parts of S AL and S GA and then on into N GA/SC/NC
Click to expand...
Could anybody post EURO rainfall amounts?? Or The Track up to the Carolinas??
 
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