Tropical Hurricane Milton

[Snow_chaser]

Reading some of Webs tweets, He thinks it may have already gone through some sort of eye wall replacement center.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[RoddyPiper]

Outside of the short term movement, the movement to the NE on a dime is what will be super interesting. Could be a Sarasota or Tampa landfall IMO.

Dead on with landfall prediction

 

[Belle Lechat]

Two planes about to make a center pass.

 

[RoddyPiper]

ERC currently ongoing IMO....900mb to Sarasota here we go.

 

[Snowfan]

ERC currently ongoing IMO....900mb to Sarasota here we go.

No sign of it. No double maxima yet.

 

[Arcc]

Wilma is a very interesting analog for Milton so far. Extreme rapid deepening with pinhole in October. Interaction with Yucatán, and morphing into a large eyed major hurricane that tracks ENE across Florida.

 

[RoddyPiper]

No sign of it. No double maxima yet.

Hints the word "ongoing"

 

[superjames1992]

I can’t believe all the uneducated people on Twitter saying this is a manufactured storm. Granted, a lot of them probably are bots, but it’s scary how easily people lap up this insanity.

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[Belle Lechat]

Before sunrise you can see where the population center is on the Yucatan.

 

[Snowfan]

Dang. Edit: I heard the SFMR is off though. But the flight level wind reduction supports high-end Cat 4.
799
URNT15 KNHC 071250
AF309 0814A MILTON HDOB 27 20241007
124200 2151N 09200W 6952 02815 9642 +103 +055 123096 101 109 008 00
124230 2149N 09201W 6970 02723 9544 +128 +051 119067 086 114 004 00
124300 2148N 09203W 6960 02686 9486 +136 +051 108041 058 079 002 00
124330 2146N 09204W 6970 02647 9453 +137 +055 092021 034 043 003 00
124400 2145N 09204W 6959 02642 9413 +160 +050 022004 017 023 002 00
124430 2143N 09204W 6970 02630 9410 +164 +055 293025 034 021 001 00
124500 2141N 09204W 6973 02637 9426 +163 +057 297062 081 074 005 00
124530 2139N 09205W 6977 02689 9518 +124 +079 296119 140 141 060 03
124600 2138N 09206W 6993 02726 9606 +101 +060 298143 146 141 061 00
124630 2137N 09207W 7018 02762 9696 +083 +052 301134 145 131 077 00
124700 2136N 09207W 6997 02835 9752 +084 +047 304121 125 105 071 00
124730 2135N 09208W 6953 02931 9793 +085 +049 309114 116 091 030 03
124800 2135N 09210W 6970 02949 9841 +082 +043 307105 115 085 021 00
124830 2134N 09211W 6959 02981 9839 +103 +041 304095 099 079 009 00
124900 2133N 09212W 6958 03004 9852 +113 +042 304089 094 074 004 00
124930 2131N 09213W 6964 03015 9886 +100 +041 305083 086 073 004 00
125000 2130N 09214W 6968 03026 9872 +127 +040 302082 083 068 004 00
125030 2129N 09215W 6960 03047 9891 +122 +040 302074 080 067 002 00
125100 2128N 09217W 6960 03058 9903 +121 +044 303071 073 067 003 00
125130 2127N 09218W 6959 03067 9906 +126 +043 302067 069 063 003 00
$$

 

[Belle Lechat]

Dang.
799
URNT15 KNHC 071250
AF309 0814A MILTON HDOB 27 20241007
124200 2151N 09200W 6952 02815 9642 +103 +055 123096 101 109 008 00
124230 2149N 09201W 6970 02723 9544 +128 +051 119067 086 114 004 00
124300 2148N 09203W 6960 02686 9486 +136 +051 108041 058 079 002 00
124330 2146N 09204W 6970 02647 9453 +137 +055 092021 034 043 003 00
124400 2145N 09204W 6959 02642 9413 +160 +050 022004 017 023 002 00
124430 2143N 09204W 6970 02630 9410 +164 +055 293025 034 021 001 00
124500 2141N 09204W 6973 02637 9426 +163 +057 297062 081 074 005 00
124530 2139N 09205W 6977 02689 9518 +124 +079 296119 140 141 060 03
124600 2138N 09206W 6993 02726 9606 +101 +060 298143 146 141 061 00
124630 2137N 09207W 7018 02762 9696 +083 +052 301134 145 131 077 00
124700 2136N 09207W 6997 02835 9752 +084 +047 304121 125 105 071 00
124730 2135N 09208W 6953 02931 9793 +085 +049 309114 116 091 030 03
124800 2135N 09210W 6970 02949 9841 +082 +043 307105 115 085 021 00
124830 2134N 09211W 6959 02981 9839 +103 +041 304095 099 079 009 00
124900 2133N 09212W 6958 03004 9852 +113 +042 304089 094 074 004 00
124930 2131N 09213W 6964 03015 9886 +100 +041 305083 086 073 004 00
125000 2130N 09214W 6968 03026 9872 +127 +040 302082 083 068 004 00
125030 2129N 09215W 6960 03047 9891 +122 +040 302074 080 067 002 00
125100 2128N 09217W 6960 03058 9903 +121 +044 303071 073 067 003 00
125130 2127N 09218W 6959 03067 9906 +126 +043 302067 069 063 003 00
$$

941 mb

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

148 knot flight level winds!

 

[Brent]

It's definitely gonna be a 5 at some point today

 

[Snowfan]

It's definitely gonna be a 5 at some point today

Getting close.

 

[ajr]

Getting close.

Already cat 4, no?

 

[Belle Lechat]

Dang. Edit: I heard the SFMR is off though. But the flight level wind reduction supports high-end Cat 4.
...
124530 2139N 09205W 6977 02689 9518 +124 +079 296119 140 141 060 03
124600 2138N 09206W 6993 02726 9606 +101 +060 298143 146 141 061 00

Re: your Edit: Look at the end of the line. The 146 line doesn't throw a flag, but as an example, the line above it does.

Below is an example and key



So surface level winds

 

[Snowfan]

...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

Data from both Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has
strengthened to a category 4 hurricane. The maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 150 mph (240 km/h). Milton is a category
4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data
from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has
fallen to 940 mb (27.76 inches).
High-end Cat 4.

 

[Rain Cold]

Definitely looks like a cat 4. The CDO on the north side has become better defined. Barring an ERC, we'll have a Cat 5 shortly.